Polymarket Trader

Kroll703

0x5c47ab436b946c3b70590b4ab1313b574c0c9b02

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $2.63K
Realized PnL: $26.99K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $188.22K
Potential profit: $188.22K
User PnL: -$129.45K

Yes position

Will a Democrat win the popular vote and the Presidency?

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $88.7K
Potential profit: $88.7K
User PnL: -$37.75K

Yes position

Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 4, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $54.92K
Potential profit: $54.92K
User PnL: -$25.07K

Harris position

Who will win white women?

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20.21K
Potential profit: $20.21K
User PnL: -$9.57K

Yes position

Will Trump win no swing states?

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10K
Potential profit: $10K
User PnL: -$900

Yes position

Trump declares election interference national emergency?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 19.5%
Current value: $1.77K
Potential payout: $9.09K
Potential profit: $7.31K
Multiplier: 5.13x
User PnL: -$9.76

No position

Will either candidate concede in November?

Ends Nov 30, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $7.86K
Potential profit: $7.86K
User PnL: -$2.99K

Yes position

Will a Democrat win Texas US Senate Election?

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.28K
Potential profit: $5.28K
User PnL: -$1K

Yes position

Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 5%
Current value: $198
Potential payout: $4K
Potential profit: $3.8K
Multiplier: 20.20x
User PnL: $38

Yes position

Will a Democrat win Pennsylvania Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.09K
Potential profit: $2.09K
User PnL: -$939.38

Yes position

Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 2.9%
Current value: $38.48
Potential payout: $1.35K
Potential profit: $1.31K
Multiplier: 35.09x
User PnL: $12.82

No position

US military action against Iran before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.28K
Potential profit: $1.28K
User PnL: -$804.34

Yes position

Will Kamala Harris be inaugurated?

Ends Dec 20, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$415

Yes position

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 5.3%
Current value: $52.5
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $947.5
Multiplier: 19.05x
User PnL: -$7.5

Yes position

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $762.59
Potential profit: $762.59
User PnL: -$239.4

Yes position

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $47.25
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $452.75
Multiplier: 10.58x
User PnL: -$12.75

No position

Will the State of the Union be 100 minutes or longer?

Ends Feb 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$150

Yes position

No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?

Ends Oct 29, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$40

No position

US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $460.64
Potential payout: $460.64
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $190.64

No position

Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?

Ends Mar 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $458.52
Potential profit: $458.52
User PnL: -$220.37

Yes position

Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?

Ends Nov 15, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $450
Potential profit: $450
User PnL: -$212.5

Yes position

Will Trump meet with Putin by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $432.98
Potential profit: $432.98
User PnL: -$138.22

No position

Kamala and Trump shake hands at inauguration?

Ends Jan 20, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $410.57
Potential profit: $410.57
User PnL: -$68.79

Yes position

No listed company closes Warner Bros acquisition by June 30, 2027

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 16%
Current value: $64
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $336
Multiplier: 6.25x
User PnL: $8

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Trump say "Elon" 5 or more times during Pennsylvania rally?

Ends Oct 5, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.77K

No position

Will Trump visit Springfield in September?

Ends Sep 30, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.08K

No position

Will Donald Trump say "Comrade Kamala" 3 or more times during his Pennsylvania rally?

Ends Sep 23, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.04K

Yes position

Will Trump say "god" 4 or more times during Pennsylvania rally?

Ends Oct 5, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.75K

No position

Will Tim Walz say "Yale" during the debate?

Ends Oct 1, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.43K

Yes position

Will Joe pardon Hunter Biden?

Ends Jan 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.36K

Yes position

Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.35K

No position

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

Ends Sep 15, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.29K

Yes position

Will Donald Trump say "Secret Service" during his Uniondale rally?

Ends Sep 18, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.19K

No position

Will Trump say "border" 30 or more times during California rally on October 12?

Ends Oct 12, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.13K

Yes position

Will Trump say "border" 20 or more times during Pennsylvania rally on October 19?

Ends Oct 19, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.06K

Yes position

Will Trump say "Kamala" 25 or more times during Pennsylvania rally on October 9?

Ends Oct 9, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.01K

Yes position

Will Trump say "drill baby drill" during Pennsylvania rally on October 9?

Ends Oct 9, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $920.51

Yes position

Will Trump say "border" 15 or more times during his Arizona rally?

Ends Sep 12, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $778.6

Yes position

Will JD Vance say "Trump" 30 or more times during the debate?

Ends Oct 1, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $774.76

No position

Will Donald Trump say "Comrade Kamala" 3 or more times during his North Carolina rally?

Ends Sep 21, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $759.53

No position

Will Trump say "border" 30 or more times during Pennsylvania rally?

Ends Oct 5, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $715.99

No position

Will Donald Trump say "drill baby drill" during his North Carolina speech?

Ends Sep 25, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $690.1

Yes position

Will Donald Trump say "Secret Service" during his Michigan town hall?

Ends Sep 17, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $680.41

Yes position

Will Trump say "border" 15 or more times during his Nevada rally?

Ends Sep 13, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $665.74

No position

Will Trump say "Tampon" during Michigan rally?

Ends Oct 3, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $656.08

No position

Will Donald Trump say "tampon" during his North Carolina rally?

Ends Sep 21, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $642.67

Yes position

Will Trump say "border" 15 or more times at Wisconsin rally?

Ends Sep 7, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $632.76

No position

Will Biden say "Hunter" during farewell address?

Ends Jan 15, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $620.01

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?

Yes 60% 235.08 shares
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?

Yes 74% 135.09 shares
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?

Yes 73% 100 shares
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?

Yes 59% 100 shares
Will Trump say "Drone" this week? (March 15)

Yes 65% 32.3 shares
Will Trump say "Regime change" this week? (March 15)

Yes 63% 15 shares
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 9?

Up 27.9% 179.49 shares
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?

Yes 7.1% 1,240 shares
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?

Yes 12% 400 shares
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?

Yes 32% 300 shares
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?

Yes 31% 142.59 shares
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?

Yes 31% 320 shares