No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $1.37K
- Potential payout
- $1.56K
- Potential profit
- $195.45
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $503.05
Polymarket Trader
AlexZA3
0x5c5b3fc5b8b34b0a8617feea02cde4a5a2d31a6d
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $5.49K
- Realized PnL
- $4.9K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 44.5%
- Current value
- $430.76
- Potential payout
- $967.99
- Potential profit
- $537.23
- Multiplier
- 2.25x
- User PnL
- -$103.15
No position
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.6%
- Current value
- $562.55
- Potential payout
- $570.83
- Potential profit
- $8.28
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $31.79
No position
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $570.33
- Potential profit
- $570.33
- User PnL
- -$144.98
No position
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99%
- Current value
- $547.08
- Potential payout
- $552.89
- Potential profit
- $5.81
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $9.92
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Current value
- $453.31
- Potential payout
- $530.19
- Potential profit
- $76.88
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- $33.01
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.9%
- Current value
- $519.73
- Potential payout
- $525.78
- Potential profit
- $6.05
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $112.28
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $511.65
- Potential profit
- $511.65
- User PnL
- -$146.25
No position
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $468.5
- Potential profit
- $468.5
- User PnL
- -$193.58
No position
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 73%
- Current value
- $240.16
- Potential payout
- $328.99
- Potential profit
- $88.83
- Multiplier
- 1.37x
- User PnL
- $21.3
No position
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Current value
- $274.19
- Potential payout
- $324.49
- Potential profit
- $50.3
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $22.45
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- Current value
- $302.05
- Potential payout
- $303.87
- Potential profit
- $1.82
- User PnL
- $13.37
No position
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- Current value
- $261.69
- Potential payout
- $263.4
- Potential profit
- $1.71
- User PnL
- $37.32
No position
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $224.05
- Potential profit
- $224.05
- User PnL
- -$38.06
Yes position
Will Trump and Putin not meet?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 62.5%
- Current value
- $122.74
- Potential payout
- $196.39
- Potential profit
- $73.65
- Multiplier
- 1.60x
- User PnL
- $3.17
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $185.16
- Potential profit
- $185.16
- User PnL
- -$110.6
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?
Ends Oct 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 73.5%
- Current value
- $106.43
- Potential payout
- $144.8
- Potential profit
- $38.37
- Multiplier
- 1.36x
- User PnL
- $5.07
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $133.51
- Potential profit
- $133.51
- User PnL
- -$33.73
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 74.5%
- Current value
- $99.39
- Potential payout
- $133.41
- Potential profit
- $34.02
- Multiplier
- 1.34x
- User PnL
- $7.32
No position
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.5%
- Current value
- $104.92
- Potential payout
- $109.86
- Potential profit
- $4.94
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- -$0.01
No position
Trump meets with Putin by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 64%
- Current value
- $63.99
- Potential payout
- $99.98
- Potential profit
- $35.99
- Multiplier
- 1.56x
- User PnL
- $3.8
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.8%
- Current value
- $5.75
- Potential payout
- $99.98
- Potential profit
- $94.23
- Multiplier
- 17.39x
- User PnL
- -$1.38
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 29.5%
- Current value
- $22.13
- Potential payout
- $75
- Potential profit
- $52.88
- Multiplier
- 3.39x
- User PnL
- $1.88
No position
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?
Ends Jun 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $18.34
- Potential profit
- $18.34
- User PnL
- -$8.79
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $496.6
No position
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $476.41
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $380.88
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $378.07
No position
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $358.81
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $344.92
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $244.96
No position
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $242.85
No position
Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?
Ends Mar 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $228.92
No position
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $221.01
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $194.56
No position
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $167.38
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $160.7
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $146.88
No position
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $132.94
No position
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $109.62
No position
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $107.8
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $97.15
No position
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $86.88
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $67.77
No position
Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $67.58
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $64.45
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 23, 2026?
Ends Apr 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $61.82
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $56.64
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes 7.1% 99.98 shares
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?No 75% 9.71 shares
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?No 70% 24.19 shares
- Will Trump and Putin not meet?Yes 59% 11.39 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?No 16% 38.6 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?No 16% 38.58 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?No 17.2% 56.91 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?No 17.2% 1.44 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?No 17.2% 0.8 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?No 23% 5.4 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?Yes 27% 75 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?Yes 26% 62.66 shares