0x5c669023bE8d949Cc489b8e397Ad81Cd606A31E3-1761618144929

Implied probability: 92%
Current value: $443.02
Potential payout: $481.54
Potential profit: $38.52
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $19.41

Yes position

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 35.5%
Current value: $143.42
Potential payout: $404
Potential profit: $260.58
Multiplier: 2.82x
User PnL: -$48.48

No position

Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027?

Implied probability: 89.5%
Current value: $275.61
Potential payout: $307.95
Potential profit: $32.33
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $40.69

No position

Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?

Implied probability: 59.5%
Current value: $130.89
Potential payout: $219.98
Potential profit: $89.09
Multiplier: 1.68x
User PnL: $71.49

Yes position

Iran leadership change by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $0.9
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $199.1
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$35.1

No position

Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$46

No position

World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 95%
Current value: $190
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $10
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $6

No position

Over $140B wagered on US sports betting in 2026?

Implied probability: 47.5%
Current value: $89.53
Potential payout: $188.69
Potential profit: $99.16
Multiplier: 2.11x
User PnL: $7.45

No position

Will Bitmine announce that it holds more than 7M ETH before 2027?

Implied probability: 79.5%
Current value: $107.04
Potential payout: $134.64
Potential profit: $27.6
Multiplier: 1.26x
User PnL: $90.88

No position

Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.3m barrels per day in 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2027

Implied probability: 63%
Current value: $67.41
Potential payout: $107.01
Potential profit: $39.59
Multiplier: 1.59x
User PnL: $5.44

Over position

Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$32

Under position

Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$42

No position

Will Manuel Bompard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $92.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $7.5
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $0.5

No position

Will Matthieu Pigasse be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $87.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $12.5
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $6.5

No position

Will Ségolène Royal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?

Implied probability: 91%
Current value: $91
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $9
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $1

No position

Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?

Implied probability: 69%
Current value: $68.99
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $31.01
Multiplier: 1.45x
User PnL: $2.99

No position

Will Juan Branco be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?

Implied probability: 84.5%
Current value: $84.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $15.5
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: $0.5

No position

Will Michel-Edouard Leclerc be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $91.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $8.5
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $0.5

No position

Will Xavier Bertrand be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?

Implied probability: 86%
Current value: $86
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $14
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: -$2

No position

Will Karim Bouamrane be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?

Implied probability: 93.5%
Current value: $93.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $6.5
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $7.5

No position

Will Based Polymarket revenue hit $3M before 2027?

Implied probability: 94.2%
Current value: $94.15
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $5.85
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $39.35

No position

Will Jérôme Guedj be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $91.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $8.5
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $1.5

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $601.02

Down position

Trump approval Up or Down this week?

Ends Mar 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $379.29

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?

Ends Dec 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $264

No position

Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $211.48

Yes position

Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be less than 56%?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $200.85

No position

Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $190

No position

Over $10M committed to the Infinex public sale?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $169.81

No position

Will another country recognize Somaliland by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $161.57

No position

Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $146.99

Down position

Republican House Odds Up or Down this week?

Ends Feb 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $139.19

Yes position

Will Hertz Global Holdings (HTZ) beat quarterly earnings?

Ends Nov 4, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $111.57

No position

Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $108

Yes position

Will MetLife (MET) beat quarterly earnings?

Ends Nov 5, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $104

No position

Will MrBeast's latest video get 20–22 million views on day 1?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $100.64

No position

Will Seguro win Portugal's Overseas Vote?

Ends Feb 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $89.5

Yes position

Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $89

Under position

Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5

Ends Jun 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $87.99

Japan position

AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan

Ends Jan 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $84

Yes position

Will Playboy (PLBY) beat quarterly earnings?

Ends Nov 12, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $81.02

No position

Will Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $76.61

No position

Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 59% and 60%?