No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.51K
- Potential profit
- $3.51K
- User PnL
- -$3.54
Polymarket Trader
stonewu
0x5c981963b983d3056e81c51124117916d0c1fc8a
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $22.81
- Realized PnL
- $402.29
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.5%
- Current value
- $4.45
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $95.55
- Multiplier
- 22.47x
- User PnL
- -$1.15
Ecuador position
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5)
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $90.09
- Potential profit
- $90.09
- User PnL
- -$13.19
Yes position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $90.09
- Potential profit
- $90.09
- User PnL
- -$4.95
Yes position
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.1%
- Current value
- $2.56
- Potential payout
- $82.45
- Potential profit
- $79.89
- Multiplier
- 32.26x
- User PnL
- -$7.44
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.1%
- Current value
- $9.08
- Potential payout
- $75
- Potential profit
- $65.93
- Multiplier
- 8.26x
- User PnL
- $4.57
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $68.18
- Potential profit
- $68.18
- User PnL
- -$0.68
Yes position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.8%
- Current value
- $0.51
- Potential payout
- $67.59
- Potential profit
- $67.08
- Multiplier
- 133.33x
- User PnL
- -$4.49
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $56.61
- Potential profit
- $56.61
- User PnL
- -$21.4
Yes position
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.7%
- Current value
- $0.92
- Potential payout
- $55.98
- Potential profit
- $55.06
- Multiplier
- 60.61x
- User PnL
- -$3.07
Germany position
Spread: Germany (-3.5)
Ends Jun 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $55.56
- Potential profit
- $55.56
- User PnL
- -$5
Netherlands position
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5)
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $55.55
- Potential profit
- $55.55
- User PnL
- -$1.06
No position
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $55.55
- Potential profit
- $55.55
- User PnL
- -$11.05
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $55.54
- Potential profit
- $55.54
- User PnL
- -$5
N
No position
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19?
Ends Jun 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $53.9
- Potential profit
- $53.9
- User PnL
- -$10.13
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50.69
- Potential profit
- $50.69
- User PnL
- -$30.92
Yes position
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $46.49
- Potential profit
- $46.49
- User PnL
- -$4.15
No position
GPT-5.6 released by July 24, 2026?
Ends Jul 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 12%
- Current value
- $5.25
- Potential payout
- $43.73
- Potential profit
- $38.48
- Multiplier
- 8.33x
- User PnL
- $0.87
No position
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $37.35
- Potential profit
- $37.35
- User PnL
- -$19.56
Yes position
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $33.73
- Potential profit
- $33.73
- User PnL
- -$2.09
Ecuador position
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5)
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $33.33
- Potential profit
- $33.33
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Nasdaq round-the-clock trading by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $0.05
- Potential payout
- $33.02
- Potential profit
- $32.97
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$4.9
Curaçao position
Spread: Germany (-1.5)
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $31.25
- Potential profit
- $31.25
- User PnL
- -$5
N
No position
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?
Ends Jul 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $25.35
- Potential profit
- $25.35
- User PnL
- -$4.99
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $83.16
Yes position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $50.61
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $42.93
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $42.59
Yes position
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.78
Yes position
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026?
Ends Mar 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.53
No position
Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22?
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $14.49
N
No position
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $13.03
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.3
Yes position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.11
No position
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.03
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.58
Y
Yes position
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.38
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.07
N
No position
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.3
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $7.3
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.1
Yes position
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.77
No position
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?
Ends Jun 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.41
Yes position
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.08
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.8%
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $5.68
N
No position
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $4.65
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.59
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.79
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026?No 19.6% 26.45 shares
- Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June?No 99% 18.94 shares
- Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?Yes 99.3% 8.77 shares
- Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?Yes 57% 8.77 shares
- Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?Yes 99.9% 7.35 shares
- Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?Yes 68% 7.35 shares
- Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?Yes 66% 6.34 shares
- Spread: Belgium (-1.5)Belgium 42% 11.63 shares
- Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?Yes 69% 7.14 shares
- Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5Over 99.9% 7.35 shares
- Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5Over 66% 7.35 shares
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?Yes 30% 16.13 shares