Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $370K
- Potential profit
- $370K
- User PnL
- -$6.53K
Polymarket Trader
0x5ca71d4db029C5454210A858c6D98bCA28668195-1769627871752
0x5ca71d4db029c5454210a858c6d98bca28668195
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $455.93
- Realized PnL
- $37.62K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $375
- Potential payout
- $150K
- Potential profit
- $149.62K
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$6.98K
Yes position
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $126.8K
- Potential profit
- $126.8K
- User PnL
- -$2.57K
Yes position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20K
- Potential profit
- $20K
- User PnL
- -$2.1K
Yes position
Iran leadership change by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $15K
- Potential profit
- $15K
- User PnL
- -$1.9K
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6K
- Potential profit
- $6K
- User PnL
- -$36
Yes position
Will Benjamin Netanyahu enter Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $4.5
- Potential payout
- $3K
- Potential profit
- $3K
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$107.64
No position
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $3.75
- Potential payout
- $1.5K
- Potential profit
- $1.5K
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$110.42
Yes position
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.1%
- Current value
- $30.5
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $969.5
- Multiplier
- 32.79x
- User PnL
- -$73.91
Yes position
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.2%
- Current value
- $41.5
- Potential payout
- $999.99
- Potential profit
- $958.49
- Multiplier
- 24.10x
- User PnL
- -$128.18
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET
Ends May 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $599.96
- Potential profit
- $599.96
- User PnL
- -$108.99
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $495.97
- Potential profit
- $495.97
- User PnL
- -$7.74
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $400
- Potential profit
- $400
- User PnL
- -$2.4
Yes position
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$7
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET
Ends May 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$50
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET
Ends May 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $99.98
- Potential profit
- $99.98
- User PnL
- -$29.99
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET
Ends May 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $42.29
- Potential profit
- $42.29
- User PnL
- -$21.15
Yes position
Will Donald Trump enter Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $0.11
- Potential payout
- $42
- Potential profit
- $41.9
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$1.2
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET
Ends May 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $20
- User PnL
- -$6.4
Yes position
Will any U.S. House member enter Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.8%
- Current value
- $0.06
- Potential payout
- $7.7
- Potential profit
- $7.64
- Multiplier
- 125.00x
- User PnL
- -$0.94
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $0.48
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $4.53
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$0.58
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $5
- User PnL
- -$2
Yes position
Iran leadership change by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Current value
- $0.04
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $4.97
- Multiplier
- 142.86x
- User PnL
- -$1.32
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET
Ends May 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $5
- User PnL
- -$1
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.42K
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.55K
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.25K
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.94K
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.21K
Yes position
Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.87K
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.06K
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.53K
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.14K
Yes position
Odds of Khamenei out by March 31 over 40% in February?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $913.13
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $469.04
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?
Ends May 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $389.53
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET
Ends Feb 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $326.04
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $261.44
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET
Ends Feb 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $200.37
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $162.26
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $133.8
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET
Ends Feb 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $122.97
Yes position
Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31?
Ends Jan 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $122.4
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET
Ends Feb 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $120.93
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET
Ends Mar 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $115.99
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $108.97
No position
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $100.97
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $100.33
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?No 2.7% 100 shares
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?No 0.6% 3,000 shares
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu enter Iran by June 30?Yes 1% 2,000 shares
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?No 0.6% 3,000 shares
- US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?Yes 1.8% 1,000 shares
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?No 2.6% 300 shares
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21?No 0.2% 1,500 shares
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 20?No 0.1% 1,183.71 shares
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21?No 4.8% 1,500 shares
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 20?No 1.5% 1,183.71 shares
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?Yes 0.5% 17,710.68 shares
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?Yes 0.8% 959.12 shares