0x5cc1...b855

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $4.29
Potential payout: $504.69
Potential profit: $500.4
Multiplier: 117.65x
User PnL: -$76.46

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $18.78
Potential payout: $163.33
Potential profit: $144.55
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: -$10.62

Yes position

Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.25
Potential payout: $123.44
Potential profit: $123.2
Multiplier: 500.00x
User PnL: -$10.86

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.04
Potential payout: $74.03
Potential profit: $74
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$26.52

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027?

Implied probability: 20%
Current value: $9.37
Potential payout: $46.83
Potential profit: $37.46
Multiplier: 5.00x
User PnL: $2.34

Yes position

Will Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?

Ends Jan 16, 2027

Implied probability: 61.5%
Current value: $20.64
Potential payout: $33.57
Potential profit: $12.92
Multiplier: 1.63x
User PnL: -$2.37

Yes position

Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 98%
Current value: $11.81
Potential payout: $12.05
Potential profit: $0.24
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $0.27

No position

Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 93.5%
Current value: $8.49
Potential payout: $9.08
Potential profit: $0.59
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $0.57

Yes position

Will Hakainde Hichilema win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?

Ends Aug 14, 2026

Implied probability: 84.5%
Current value: $7.63
Potential payout: $9.03
Potential profit: $1.4
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: $0.26

No position

Will UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council in 2026?

Implied probability: 93%
Current value: $7.49
Potential payout: $8.05
Potential profit: $0.56
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: -$0

Yes position

Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?

Implied probability: 98.8%
Current value: $4.76
Potential payout: $4.81
Potential profit: $0.06
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $1.93

No position

China x Japan military clash before 2027?

Implied probability: 93.5%
Current value: $2.54
Potential payout: $2.72
Potential profit: $0.18
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $0.1

No position

Zohran Mamdani out as mayor of NYC before 2027?

Implied probability: 94.5%
Current value: $2.18
Potential payout: $2.31
Potential profit: $0.13
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $0.01

No position

Trump out as President before 2027?

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $2.06
Potential payout: $2.23
Potential profit: $0.17
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $0.06

No position

Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 30, 2027

Implied probability: 76.5%
Current value: $1.64
Potential payout: $2.15
Potential profit: $0.51
Multiplier: 1.31x
User PnL: -$0.12

No position

Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?

Implied probability: 93%
Current value: $1.73
Potential payout: $1.86
Potential profit: $0.13
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $0.11

No position

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 67.5%
Current value: $1.13
Potential payout: $1.68
Potential profit: $0.55
Multiplier: 1.48x
User PnL: $0.09

No position

Will New People (NL) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 98.2%
Current value: $1.47
Potential payout: $1.5
Potential profit: $0.03
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $0

No position

US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?

Implied probability: 96.6%
Current value: $1.2
Potential payout: $1.24
Potential profit: $0.04
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $0.06

No position

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 38.5%
Current value: $0.44
Potential payout: $1.15
Potential profit: $0.71
Multiplier: 2.60x
User PnL: -$0.07

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $362.02

Diane Parry position

Paris: Madison Keys vs Diane Parry

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $351.45

Alex de Minaur position

Hamburg European Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Alex de Minaur

Ends May 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $309.67

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $200.45

No position

Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-17?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $153.82

Camilo Ugo Carabelli position

Hamburg European Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Ends May 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $142.82

Yes position

Will Brøndby IF win on 2026-05-17?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $140.47

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $132.55

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $129.66

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $129.47

Athletics position

Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels

Ends May 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $128.1

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $127.52

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $127.3

No position

Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on May 17?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $126.16

No position

Will CA Paranaense win on 2026-05-17?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $113.66

Burnley FC position

Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $103.32

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $102.75

No position

Will FC Midtjylland win on 2026-05-17?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $102.32

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $98.29

Chicago White Sox position

Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $95.23

Chicago Sky position

Chicago Sky vs. Minnesota Lynx

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $94.42

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $93.64

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET