Yes position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5.27M
- Potential profit
- $5.27M
- User PnL
- -$5.27K
Polymarket Trader
SP888
0x5d05b1f588780423488a09d9aefeb64df54d6320
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $34.34
- Realized PnL
- $27.81K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Netanyahu out by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.51M
- Potential profit
- $1.51M
- User PnL
- -$1.51K
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $177.95K
- Potential profit
- $177.95K
- User PnL
- -$207.85
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $173.35K
- Potential profit
- $173.35K
- User PnL
- -$380.67
Yes position
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 28, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6.17K
- Potential profit
- $6.17K
- User PnL
- -$6.51
Yes position
Netanyahu out by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.8%
- Current value
- $3.82
- Potential payout
- $508.96
- Potential profit
- $505.14
- Multiplier
- 133.33x
- User PnL
- -$51.73
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $160.51
- Potential profit
- $160.51
- User PnL
- -$45.69
No position
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $85.87
- Potential profit
- $85.87
- User PnL
- -$29.15
Yes position
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?
Ends Apr 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $66
- Potential profit
- $66
- User PnL
- -$14.74
Yes position
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.4%
- Current value
- $0.47
- Potential payout
- $34.7
- Potential profit
- $34.24
- Multiplier
- 74.07x
- User PnL
- -$8.21
Yes position
Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 15.5%
- Current value
- $4.42
- Potential payout
- $28.55
- Potential profit
- $24.12
- Multiplier
- 6.45x
- User PnL
- -$1.02
Yes position
Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 19.5%
- Current value
- $5.27
- Potential payout
- $27
- Potential profit
- $21.74
- Multiplier
- 5.13x
- User PnL
- -$2.37
Yes position
Trump declares election interference national emergency?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9%
- Current value
- $2.37
- Potential payout
- $26.32
- Potential profit
- $23.95
- Multiplier
- 11.11x
- User PnL
- -$2.63
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $23.2
- Potential profit
- $23.2
- User PnL
- -$6.73
Yes position
Epstein client list released by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.4%
- Current value
- $0.29
- Potential payout
- $21
- Potential profit
- $20.71
- Multiplier
- 71.43x
- User PnL
- -$4.75
No position
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.3%
- Current value
- $0.63
- Potential payout
- $12
- Potential profit
- $11.37
- Multiplier
- 19.05x
- User PnL
- -$0.45
No position
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam?
Ends Jan 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $11.27
- Potential profit
- $11.27
- User PnL
- -$2.2
Yes position
Will Trump nationalize elections?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.5%
- Current value
- $1.19
- Potential payout
- $10.35
- Potential profit
- $9.16
- Multiplier
- 8.70x
- User PnL
- -$0.76
Yes position
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 85%
- Current value
- $5.95
- Potential payout
- $7
- Potential profit
- $1.05
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $0.77
No position
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5.44
- Potential profit
- $5.44
- User PnL
- -$1.04
No position
Will Cristiano Ronaldo announce his retirement in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87%
- Current value
- $4.35
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $0.65
- Multiplier
- 1.15x
- User PnL
- $0.65
No position
Will Manchester United finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings?
Ends May 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $5
- User PnL
- -$2.85
Yes position
GOP uses 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster by December 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 15.5%
- Current value
- $0.78
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $4.23
- Multiplier
- 6.45x
- User PnL
- -$0.98
Yes position
Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.1%
- Current value
- $4.8
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $0.2
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $0.85
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $5.24K
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.97K
Yes position
Will the DHS shutdown last 30 days or more?
Ends Mar 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.68K
No position
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.53K
Yes position
US government shutdown Saturday?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.48K
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.39K
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1K
Yes position
Will the government shutdown last 4 days or more?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $938.49
Yes position
Government shutdown on Saturday?
Ends Feb 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $925.69
Yes position
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $761.36
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $745.23
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $693.5
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $681.59
No position
Government shutdown on Saturday?
Ends Feb 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $624.96
Yes position
Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $608.75
No position
Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more?
Ends Mar 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $599.55
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by March 14?
Ends Mar 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $578.37
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by March 7?
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $566.84
Yes position
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 3?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $501
No position
US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $499.21
No position
Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more?
Ends Mar 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $482.82
No position
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $446.33
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $435.41
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?
Ends May 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $427.9
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "European Union" before 2027?Yes 6.9% 25 shares
- Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid?Yes 90.1% 7.46 shares
- Nothing Ever Happens: MarchNothing 88.1% 40.17 shares
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?Yes 30% 1 shares
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?Yes 41% 1 shares
- Did a crypto hedge fund blow up?Yes 54% 2.37 shares
- US recession by end of 2026?Yes 22% 11.57 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Yes 6.8% 30.76 shares
- Nothing Ever Happens: MarchNothing 59% 5 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?Yes 1.6% 0.13 shares
- Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?Yes 8.6% 1.11 shares
- Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?No 99.8% 0.11 shares