trader20025

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $2.8
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $397.2
Multiplier: 142.86x
User PnL: $0.8

Yes position

Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81

Implied probability: 14%
Current value: $36.63
Potential payout: $261.66
Potential profit: $225.03
Multiplier: 7.14x
User PnL: -$32.77

Yes position

Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 6%
Current value: $12.9
Potential payout: $215
Potential profit: $202.1
Multiplier: 16.67x
User PnL: -$94.6

No position

Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 94%
Current value: $202.1
Potential payout: $215
Potential profit: $12.9
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $94.6

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 7%
Current value: $2.3
Potential payout: $32.86
Potential profit: $30.56
Multiplier: 14.29x
User PnL: -$10.2

Yes position

Will "Avengers: Doomsday" make it into the IMDb Top 250?

Ends Mar 31, 2027

Implied probability: 42%
Current value: $11.93
Potential payout: $28.4
Potential profit: $16.47
Multiplier: 2.38x
User PnL: -$2.12

Yes position

Will Dune: Messiah get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?

Ends Feb 28, 2027

Implied probability: 29%
Current value: $6.53
Potential payout: $22.5
Potential profit: $15.98
Multiplier: 3.45x
User PnL: $2.93

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $1.1
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $18.9
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$6.1

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 9%
Current value: $1.8
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $18.2
Multiplier: 11.11x
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will The Odyssey have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?

Implied probability: 1.1%
Current value: $0.16
Potential payout: $14.15
Potential profit: $14
Multiplier: 90.91x
User PnL: $0.08

Yes position

Will Hillary Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.02
Potential payout: $13
Potential profit: $12.98
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$1.02

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $1.25
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $8.75
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: -$6.75

Yes position

Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 10%
Current value: $0.79
Potential payout: $7.86
Potential profit: $7.07
Multiplier: 10.00x
User PnL: -$4.36

No position

Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.6%
Current value: $4.98
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $0.02
User PnL: $0.75

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 59.5%
Current value: $2.97
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $2.03
Multiplier: 1.68x
User PnL: -$1.03

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 47.5%
Current value: $2.37
Potential payout: $4.99
Potential profit: $2.62
Multiplier: 2.11x
User PnL: -$1.12

Yes position

Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $0.02
Potential payout: $4.76
Potential profit: $4.74
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$0.98

Yes position

Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $0.02
Potential payout: $4.55
Potential profit: $4.52
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$0.98

Yes position

Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $0.28
Potential payout: $3.7
Potential profit: $3.43
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: -$0.72

Yes position

Will Steve Bannon be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $0.02
Potential payout: $3.45
Potential profit: $3.43
Multiplier: 200.00x
User PnL: -$0.98

No position

Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans?

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $2
Potential payout: $2.01
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 19%
Current value: $0.37
Potential payout: $1.92
Potential profit: $1.56
Multiplier: 5.26x
User PnL: -$0.63

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 63.5%
Current value: $1.01
Potential payout: $1.59
Potential profit: $0.58
Multiplier: 1.57x
User PnL: $0.01

No position

Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2026?

Implied probability: 94.5%
Current value: $1.47
Potential payout: $1.56
Potential profit: $0.09
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $0.07

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?

Ends May 18, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.12K

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 7AM ET

Ends Jul 28, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $112.02

Yes position

Will "Scream 7" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 60m and 65m?

Ends Mar 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $90.03

Yes position

Bitcoin above $103,000 on June 20?

Ends Jun 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $87.12

Avatar position

Wicked vs Avatar: Bigger Domestic Opening Weekend?

Ends Dec 22, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $59.93

Yes position

Will Foks win the ETH Perpswick EdgeX trading competition?

Ends Nov 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $51.87

Yes position

Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $41.19

Yes position

Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 1.2%
Multiplier: 86.96x
User PnL: $29.58

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $108K on June 20?

Ends Jun 20, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $18.05

No position

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?

Ends Jan 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $17.77

Yes position

Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.8%
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: $13.32

Yes position

Will Stable launch a token in 2025?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.36

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?

Ends Sep 17, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $7.94

Yes position

Will "28 Years Later: Bone Temple" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 16m?

Ends Jan 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.9

Yes position

Another crypto hack over $100m before 2027?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.42

Yes position

Will Trump announce Scott Bessent as next Fed Chair in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $5.62

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting?

Ends Oct 29, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $4.56

Yes position

Will OneStream (OS) beat quarterly earnings?

Ends Nov 6, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.52

Yes position

ETHGAS FDV above $200M one day after launch?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.85

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?

Ends Dec 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.21

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?