Polymarket Trader

Swolio

0x5d1e733fefa1dd5088ce7bc6c57d4be70c98b4d0

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $498.43
Realized PnL: $1.03K
Win rate: 75%
Open positions: 22
Closed positions: 16
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Melania say "Career" during AI talk on Friday?

Ends Jan 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $118K
Potential profit: $118K
User PnL: -$236

Yes position

Internet Access restored in Iran by March 7, 2026?

Ends Mar 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $7.81K
Potential profit: $7.81K
User PnL: -$99.99

Yes position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6.25K
Potential profit: $6.25K
User PnL: -$50

Yes position

Will anyone audibly fart during Trump's WEF 2026 speech?

Ends Jan 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.65K
Potential profit: $2.65K
User PnL: -$140

Yes position

Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.45K
Potential profit: $2.45K
User PnL: -$68

No position

Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on January 21?

Ends Jan 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.64K
Potential profit: $1.64K
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.49K
Potential profit: $1.49K
User PnL: -$75

No position

Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on January 22?

Ends Jan 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.39K
Potential profit: $1.39K
User PnL: -$200

Yes position

Will Trump cut off trade with Spain?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.25K
Potential profit: $1.25K
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?

Ends May 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.2K
Potential profit: $1.2K
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Will Trump meet with Jerome Powell by January 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $666.86
Potential profit: $666.86
User PnL: -$20

No position

Will USD reach 1.9M Iranian rials by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 97.4%
Current value: $496.98
Potential payout: $510.51
Potential profit: $13.53
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $196.98

No position

Will Khamenei tweet again by March 7?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $415.88
Potential profit: $415.88
User PnL: -$240

No position

Will Player 167 win Beast Games: Season 2?

Ends Feb 25, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $325.99
Potential profit: $325.99
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $1.45
Potential payout: $321.52
Potential profit: $320.07
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$57.55

No position

U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $299.62
Potential profit: $299.62
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Will Trump say "Somali" or "Somalia" or "Somalian" during remarks on January 28?

Ends Jan 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $290.75
Potential profit: $290.75
User PnL: -$200

Yes position

Will Trump say "Davos" or "World Economic Forum" during Iowa speech?

Ends Jan 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $261.57
Potential profit: $261.57
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

AI Industry Downturn by March 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $254.03
Potential profit: $254.03
User PnL: -$11

No position

Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $430 end of January?

Ends Jan 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $166.67
Potential profit: $166.67
User PnL: -$100

No position

Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $151.52
Potential profit: $151.52
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Will Trump say "Leo" or "Pope" during Fox interview on Wednesday?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $132.88
Potential profit: $132.88
User PnL: -$100

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Sean Strickland position

UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)

Ends May 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $455.56

Charles Oliveira position

UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card)

Ends Mar 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $177.78

No position

Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on January 22?

Ends Jan 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $132.97

Yes position

Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $126.93

No position

Will Trump say "Biden" 15+ times during Iowa speech?

Ends Jan 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $59.88

No position

Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on January 21?

Ends Jan 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $50.75

No position

Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $7,040 on the final trading day of January 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.5

Yes position

Will Don Lemon be criminally charged?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.21

Yes position

Will Donald Trump not announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve before February 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $13.33

Yes position

Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $12.83

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 94.6%
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $10.42

Yes position

Ilhan Omar town hall attack staged?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.82

No position

Will any of Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect by Feb 1?

Ends Feb 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$0.82

No position

Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$8.45

Yes position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will "Melania" score at least 10 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?

Ends Feb 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$30.23

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will USD reach 1.9M Iranian rials by June 30?

No 58.8% 510.51 shares
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?

Yes 0.4% 10,000 shares
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?

Yes 0.8% 6,250 shares
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?

Yes 0.5% 10,000 shares
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)

Sean Strickland 18% 555.56 shares
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Yes 64% 172.53 shares
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Yes 58% 172.54 shares
Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30?

No 66% 151.52 shares
Will Trump say "Leo" or "Pope" during Fox interview on Wednesday?

Yes 75.3% 132.88 shares
Will Khamenei tweet again by March 7?

No 64.2% 218.09 shares
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card)

Charles Oliveira 36% 277.78 shares
Internet Access restored in Iran by March 7, 2026?

Yes 1.2% 4,154.02 shares