Polymarket Trader

ARNE

0x5d21e0820bc65276ce7258ee002e65a750ae24ac

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $19.91
Realized PnL: $264.31
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 5
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $350
Potential profit: $350
User PnL: -$71.5

Yes position

Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$1.4

Yes position

Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $58.82
Potential profit: $58.82
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 56%
Current value: $19.34
Potential payout: $34.54
Potential profit: $15.2
Multiplier: 1.79x
User PnL: -$0.66

No position

Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 50.5%
Current value: $0.57
Potential payout: $1.12
Potential profit: $0.56
Multiplier: 1.98x
User PnL: -$0.43

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will xAI have the top AI model on July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $101.7

No position

Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before August?

Ends Jul 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $60

No position

Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $38.79

No position

Grok 4 scores above 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

Ends Aug 15, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.39

No position

Xi Jinping out in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.82

Yes position

Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce engaged in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.7

Yes position

Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months?

Ends Aug 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.89

Yes position

Elon Musk out as Head of DOGE before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.56

No position

Elon forms new party within 1 day of the spending bill passing?

Ends Jul 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.39

Yes position

Will Elon and DOGE cut less than $50b in federal spending in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.06

No position

Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4

No position

Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?

Ends Jan 19, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.81

No position

Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.47

No position

Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $370b and $380b on June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.39

Gukesh position

World Chess Championship 2024 Winner

Ends Dec 13, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.95

No position

Will Trump acquire Greenland before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.63

No position

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.5

Yes position

Yoon arrested by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.39

No position

Will the next Pope be from Africa?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.22

No position

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.2

No position

Egypt/Jordan agree to take 100k+ Gazan refugees before April?

Ends Mar 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.2

Yes position

Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election?

Ends Jan 26, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.11

No position

China x Philippines military clash by June 30?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.11

No position

Will Jesus Christ return in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.03

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service in 2025?

No 17% 60 shares
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service in 2025?

No 15% 50 shares
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?

Yes 57.9% 34.54 shares
Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce engaged in 2025?

Yes 43% 10 shares
Grok 4 scores above 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

No 92% 217.39 shares
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025?

Yes 1.4% 100 shares
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July?

No 99.8% 62.99 shares
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?

Yes 1.7% 58.82 shares
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July?

No 99.3% 402.82 shares
Elon forms new party within 1 day of the spending bill passing?

No 82% 24.39 shares
Xi Jinping out in 2025?

No 85% 58.82 shares
Will Elon Musk create a new political party in 2025?

No 89% 30 shares