No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 60.5%
- Current value
- $604.99
- Potential payout
- $999.99
- Potential profit
- $395
- Multiplier
- 1.65x
- User PnL
- $55
Polymarket Trader
greathug
0x5d4c6800c84efe979918f4375ffed1d6a3793d9f
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $604.99
- Realized PnL
- $1.64K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 6
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Russian strike on Poland by December 31?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $300
- User PnL
- -$69
Yes position
Will Elon tweet between 260 and 279 times September 5–12?
Ends Sep 12, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $210
- Potential profit
- $210
- User PnL
- -$63
Yes position
Will Elon tweet between 240 and 259 times September 5–12?
Ends Sep 12, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $200
- User PnL
- -$46
Yes position
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest?
Ends Dec 7, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $149.19
- Potential profit
- $149.19
- User PnL
- -$42
Yes position
Will PLC win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election?
Ends Mar 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$33
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $164
Yes position
Will Elon tweet 255 or more times August 1–August 8?
Ends Aug 8, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $148.09
Yes position
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 0-4%?
Ends Jun 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $146.88
Yes position
Will Elon tweet 450 or more times August 8–August 15?
Ends Aug 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $133.63
Yes position
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?
Ends Dec 7, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $92.54
Yes position
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times August 22–August 29?
Ends Aug 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $90.63
Yes position
Will Lee Jae-myung win 45-50% of the vote in the South Korea election?
Ends Jun 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $73.76
Yes position
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $72.54
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $68.72
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $64.27
Yes position
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 18–25?
Ends Jul 25, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $62.88
Yes position
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 4–11?
Ends Jul 11, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $57.11
No position
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $56.9
Yes position
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times June 27–July 4?
Ends Jul 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $56.38
No position
Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $53.85
Yes position
Will PH win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election?
Ends Mar 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $51
Yes position
Will Rumen Radev be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 parliamentary election?
Ends Apr 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $43.47
Yes position
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 11–18?
Ends Jul 18, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $41.05
Yes position
Will Elon tweet 175–199 times June 6–13?
Ends Jun 13, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $41.04
No position
Trump and Elon publicly reconcile before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $35
Yes position
Will Andrej Babiš be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic after the elections?
Ends Oct 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.99
No position
Ukraine election called in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.96
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.85
Yes position
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times August 1–August 8?
Ends Aug 8, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $22.47
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?No 55% 999.99 shares
- Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Yes 19% 410 shares
- Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Yes 80% 410 shares
- Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Yes 40% 410 shares
- Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Yes 42% 410 shares
- Will Rumen Radev be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 parliamentary election?Yes 97.2% 120 shares
- Will Rumen Radev be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 parliamentary election?Yes 61% 120 shares
- Will PH win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election?Yes 49% 100 shares
- Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?Yes 6% 115 shares
- Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes 62% 92.59 shares
- Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes 54% 92.59 shares
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?No 78% 569.98 shares