Polymarket Trader

arongarongarong

@luckycall0328

0x5d5a68ba12cf0264ea2dab626d99abb9a71c4289

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $1.47K
Realized PnL: $65.2K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

MIBR position

Counter-Strike: BIG vs MIBR (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage

Ends Jul 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $759.94
Potential payout: $760.32
Potential profit: $0.38
User PnL: $368.91

Yes position

Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Ends Oct 10, 2026

Implied probability: 3.5%
Current value: $13.72
Potential payout: $387.47
Potential profit: $373.75
Multiplier: 28.25x
User PnL: -$1.33

Yes position

Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Ends Oct 10, 2026

Implied probability: 9.4%
Current value: $30.53
Potential payout: $326.56
Potential profit: $296.03
Multiplier: 10.70x
User PnL: $11.29

No position

Will the Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) be included in the next Romanian government?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 93.2%
Current value: $198.4
Potential payout: $212.99
Potential profit: $14.59
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: -$1.52

Yes position

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $23
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $177
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: $3

Yes position

Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Ends Oct 10, 2026

Implied probability: 2.1%
Current value: $3.77
Potential payout: $176.09
Potential profit: $172.32
Multiplier: 46.73x
User PnL: -$0.28

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 24.5%
Current value: $40.84
Potential payout: $166.69
Potential profit: $125.85
Multiplier: 4.08x
User PnL: -$7.5

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 40.5%
Current value: $56.19
Potential payout: $138.74
Potential profit: $82.55
Multiplier: 2.47x
User PnL: -$3.47

No position

Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 34.5%
Current value: $44.88
Potential payout: $130.13
Potential profit: $85.25
Multiplier: 2.90x
User PnL: -$9.54

No position

Will the Save Romania Union (USR) be included in the next Romanian government?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 63%
Current value: $61.83
Potential payout: $98.08
Potential profit: $36.25
Multiplier: 1.59x
User PnL: -$8.73

Yes position

Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 34.2%
Current value: $33.36
Potential payout: $97.54
Potential profit: $64.18
Multiplier: 2.92x
User PnL: $5.92

No position

Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 4, 2026

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $6.24
Potential payout: $96.02
Potential profit: $89.77
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: -$24.39

No position

Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 75.5%
Current value: $48.99
Potential payout: $64.86
Potential profit: $15.86
Multiplier: 1.32x
User PnL: -$6.76

Yes position

Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technocrat?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 26%
Current value: $12.42
Potential payout: $47.78
Potential profit: $35.36
Multiplier: 3.85x
User PnL: -$17.56

No position

Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 89.5%
Current value: $34.93
Potential payout: $39.03
Potential profit: $4.1
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $11.12

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 73%
Current value: $28.12
Potential payout: $38.52
Potential profit: $10.4
Multiplier: 1.37x
User PnL: $11.94

Yes position

Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of UDMR?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $0.16
Potential payout: $31.95
Potential profit: $31.79
Multiplier: 200.00x
User PnL: -$18.25

No position

Will George Simion be the next Prime Minister of Romania?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 98.4%
Current value: $29.07
Potential payout: $29.54
Potential profit: $0.47
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $1.5

Yes position

Will Radu Burnete be the next Prime Minister of Romania?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 2.5%
Current value: $0.73
Potential payout: $28.81
Potential profit: $28.08
Multiplier: 39.37x
User PnL: -$5.53

No position

Will the National Liberal Party (PNL) be included in the next Romanian government?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 64.5%
Current value: $15.44
Potential payout: $23.93
Potential profit: $8.5
Multiplier: 1.55x
User PnL: $1.37

No position

Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 43.5%
Current value: $6.36
Potential payout: $14.62
Potential profit: $8.26
Multiplier: 2.30x
User PnL: $0.66

No position

Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 77.1%
Current value: $9.24
Potential payout: $11.99
Potential profit: $2.75
Multiplier: 1.30x
User PnL: -$2.39

No position

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 16.3%
Current value: $1.32
Potential payout: $8.08
Potential profit: $6.76
Multiplier: 6.13x
User PnL: -$2.05

No position

Will the next governing coalition of Romania include PSD + PNL?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 75.5%
Current value: $5.63
Potential payout: $7.46
Potential profit: $1.83
Multiplier: 1.32x
User PnL: -$1.31

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Legacy position

Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships Playoffs

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.04K

No position

Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.05K

FlyQuest position

Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1

Ends Jun 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.76K

OG position

Dota 2: OG vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.86K

GIANTX position

LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.82K

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.58K

No position

Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-24?

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.33K

DN SOOPers Challengers position

LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 1-2

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.93K

Dplus KIA position

LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner

Ends May 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.35K

NIP position

Counter-Strike: NIP vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.26K

UCAM Esports Club position

LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - LES Playoffs

Ends Jun 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.22K

HANJIN BRION position

LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoffs

Ends May 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.11K

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET

Ends Apr 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.04K

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET

Ends Apr 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.01K

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET

Ends Apr 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2K

Minnesota Lynx position

Spread: Atlanta Dream (-2.5)

Ends May 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.98K

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.95K

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET

Ends Apr 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.89K

Toronto Blue Jays position

Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)

Ends Apr 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.89K

No position

Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-24?

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.89K

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET

Ends Apr 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.85K

PCIFIC position

LoL: Ozarox Esports vs PCIFIC (BO5) - TCL Playoffs

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.82K

Movistar KOI position

LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner

Ends May 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.78K

Yes position

Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.77K

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Counter-Strike: Luminosity vs NIP (BO3) - XSE Pro League Group Stage

NIP 51% 24.12 shares
Counter-Strike: BIG vs MIBR (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage

MIBR 51% 13.75 shares
Counter-Strike: Luminosity vs NIP (BO3) - XSE Pro League Group Stage

NIP 51% 4.82 shares
Counter-Strike: Luminosity vs NIP (BO3) - XSE Pro League Group Stage

NIP 51% 28.96 shares
Counter-Strike: Luminosity vs NIP (BO3) - XSE Pro League Group Stage

NIP 51% 24.12 shares
Counter-Strike: Luminosity vs NIP (BO3) - XSE Pro League Group Stage

NIP 51% 24.12 shares
Counter-Strike: Luminosity vs NIP (BO3) - XSE Pro League Group Stage

NIP 51% 106.59 shares
Counter-Strike: Luminosity vs NIP (BO3) - XSE Pro League Group Stage

NIP 51% 9.35 shares
Counter-Strike: Luminosity vs NIP (BO3) - XSE Pro League Group Stage

NIP 51% 9.35 shares
Counter-Strike: Luminosity vs NIP (BO3) - XSE Pro League Group Stage

NIP 51% 12.76 shares
Counter-Strike: Luminosity vs NIP (BO3) - XSE Pro League Group Stage

NIP 51% 245.31 shares
Counter-Strike: Luminosity vs NIP (BO3) - XSE Pro League Group Stage

NIP 51% 4.82 shares