No position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $14.67K
- Potential profit
- $14.67K
- User PnL
- -$13.99K
Polymarket Trader
8396239287
0x5d83c3963c790b9760e6ac0e55878320cafa0bb9
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $3.7K
- Realized PnL
- $36.59K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $9.88K
- Potential profit
- $9.88K
- User PnL
- -$3.66K
Yes position
Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $7.18K
- Potential profit
- $7.18K
- User PnL
- -$5.84K
Yes position
Will Mistral AI have the top AI model on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.06K
- Potential profit
- $4.06K
- User PnL
- -$12.18
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.29K
- Potential profit
- $3.29K
- User PnL
- -$2.78K
No position
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.8%
- Current value
- $2.94K
- Potential payout
- $3K
- Potential profit
- $67.61
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $1.25K
Yes position
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3K
- Potential profit
- $3K
- User PnL
- -$150
No position
Grokipedia released by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3K
- Potential profit
- $3K
- User PnL
- -$33
Yes position
Will xAI have the top AI model on July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3K
- Potential profit
- $3K
- User PnL
- -$27
Yes position
AI wins IMO gold medal in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.92K
- Potential profit
- $2.92K
- User PnL
- -$1.86K
No position
OpenAI social app in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.26K
- Potential profit
- $2.26K
- User PnL
- -$1.33K
Yes position
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.87K
- Potential profit
- $1.87K
- User PnL
- -$5.61
Yes position
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.66K
- Potential profit
- $1.66K
- User PnL
- -$523.72
No position
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 39.5%
- Current value
- $394.98
- Potential payout
- $999.96
- Potential profit
- $604.98
- Multiplier
- 2.53x
- User PnL
- $284.99
Yes position
Will xAI have the top AI model at the end of January 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $681.57
- Potential profit
- $681.57
- User PnL
- -$163.58
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $645.35
- Potential profit
- $645.35
- User PnL
- -$29.04
Yes position
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 15?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $562.5
- Potential profit
- $562.5
- User PnL
- -$450
No position
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $500
- User PnL
- -$20
Yes position
Will any Google Gemini 3 model score at least 1500 on LMArena by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $469.74
- Potential profit
- $469.74
- User PnL
- -$228.08
Yes position
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $441.58
- Potential profit
- $441.58
- User PnL
- -$348.02
No position
Will Ari Weinstein leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.4%
- Current value
- $370.26
- Potential payout
- $409.58
- Potential profit
- $39.32
- Multiplier
- 1.11x
- User PnL
- $79.46
Yes position
Will ChatGPT reach 1b monthly active users in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $378.48
- Potential profit
- $378.48
- User PnL
- -$195.69
No position
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 30% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $349.28
- Potential profit
- $349.28
- User PnL
- -$89.68
Yes position
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $330.45
- Potential profit
- $330.45
- User PnL
- -$19.83
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will any AI model reach 1500+ on Chatbot Arena by Dec 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.3K
Yes position
Will Google have the top AI model on March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.79K
No position
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024?
Ends Dec 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2.66K
Yes position
Will Google have the top AI model on May 31?
Ends May 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.51K
Yes position
Will Google have the top AI model on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.38K
Yes position
Will xAI have a #1 AI model this year?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.75K
Yes position
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.7K
Yes position
Will Google have the top AI model on July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.65K
Yes position
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.45K
No position
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.43K
No position
Will Trump say 'AI' or 'artificial intelligence' during the 2025 State of the Union?
Ends Mar 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.25K
No position
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?
Ends Apr 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.13K
No position
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.02K
Yes position
Will Google have the top AI model on April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $970.45
Yes position
Will Trump say 'crypto' or 'Bitcoin' during the 2025 State of the Union?
Ends Mar 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $935.31
Yes position
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $900
Yes position
US government shutdown Saturday?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $814.97
Yes position
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?
Ends Apr 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $750.33
Yes position
GPT-5.3 released by March 8, 2026?
Ends Mar 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $745.74
No position
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $720.37
No position
Grok 5 released by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $714.46
No position
Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model this year?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $694.52
Yes position
Will xAI have the top AI model on February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $679.21
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $663.72
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Gemini 3.5 released by March 31?No 97.4% 364.93 shares
- GPT-5.4 released by March 5?Yes 91.4% 541 shares
- GPT-5.4 released by March 9?Yes 92.3% 976.93 shares
- GPT-5.4 released by March 5?Yes 89.8% 633.5 shares
- GPT-5.4 released by March 5?Yes 87.7% 1,942.36 shares
- GPT-5.3 released by March 8, 2026?Yes 99.9% 3,800 shares
- GPT-5.3 released by March 8, 2026?Yes 81.7% 600 shares
- GPT-5.3 released by March 8, 2026?Yes 80% 3,200 shares
- Gemini 3.5 released by March 31?No 65.9% 127.18 shares
- Will Google Gemini score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Yes 90% 211.54 shares
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?No 94.1% 3,239.86 shares
- Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026?Yes 85% 531.02 shares