Yes position
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on July 14?
Ends Jul 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5.05K
- Potential profit
- $5.05K
- User PnL
- -$40
Polymarket Trader
smaug.the.fire.drake
0x5eebf757f31d287160f30f8e397970737d26e2b9
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $562.81
- Realized PnL
- $23.57
- Win rate
- 71.4%
- Open positions
- 11
- Closed positions
- 14
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.8%
- Current value
- $312.45
- Potential payout
- $329.76
- Potential profit
- $17.31
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $2.45
No position
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $203.49
- Potential payout
- $232.56
- Potential profit
- $29.07
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $3.49
Yes position
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $209.52
- Potential profit
- $209.52
- User PnL
- -$2
Y
Yes position
Will Claude go down 3-5 times in July?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.8%
- Current value
- $2.48
- Potential payout
- $90.06
- Potential profit
- $87.58
- Multiplier
- 36.36x
- User PnL
- -$9.05
N
No position
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 68.5%
- Current value
- $34.25
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $15.75
- Multiplier
- 1.46x
- User PnL
- -$0.25
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 9AM ET
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $16.8
- Potential profit
- $16.8
- User PnL
- -$10
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 5PM ET
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $15
- Potential profit
- $15
- User PnL
- -$1.2
Yes position
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $13.88
- Potential profit
- $13.88
- User PnL
- -$3.47
No position
Will Trump praise Allah again by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 75%
- Current value
- $7.5
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $2.5
- Multiplier
- 1.33x
- User PnL
- $0.1
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down on July 16?
Ends Jul 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 26.5%
- Current value
- $2.65
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $7.35
- Multiplier
- 3.77x
- User PnL
- $0.15
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 14?
Ends Jul 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.43
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 9AM ET
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.19
N
No position
Iran full airspace closure by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.12
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 10AM ET
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.5
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 8AM ET
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.3
Yes position
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.16
Yes position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
Ends Jul 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 96%
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $2.15
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 7AM ET
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.15
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 12PM ET
Ends Jul 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.62
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 1PM ET
Ends Jul 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.29
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 7AM ET
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.02
No position
Will Jerome Powell join an AI company in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94%
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- -$0.06
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 10AM ET
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2.5
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 8AM ET
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2.75
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?No 69% 25.54 shares
- Iran full airspace closure by July 15?No 99.1% 44.52 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down on July 16?Up 25% 10 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 5PM ETUp 8% 15 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 9AM ETDown 99.9% 12 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 9AM ETUp 59.5% 16.8 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 9AM ETDown 38% 6 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 8AM ETUp 34% 5 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 7AM ETUp 57% 5 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 7AM ETDown 40% 17 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 7AM ETDown 26% 7 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 7AM ETDown 31% 12.9 shares