No position
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
Ends Jul 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.9%
- Current value
- $197.46
- Potential payout
- $230
- Potential profit
- $32.54
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- -$14.15
Polymarket Trader
Caleb1999
0x5f3b9b4b95c71fa625caee627b5e9c62023eaaa6
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $208.07
- Realized PnL
- $5.94K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 3
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $5.19
- Potential payout
- $6
- Potential profit
- $0.81
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $0.33
No position
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $5.43
- Potential payout
- $6
- Potential profit
- $0.57
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- -$0.03
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.26K
No position
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?
Ends Feb 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $748.5
No position
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 7?
Ends Feb 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $596.31
No position
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?
Ends Jan 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $586.33
No position
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on February 6?
Ends Feb 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $585.73
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $507.78
No position
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?
Ends Feb 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $505.17
No position
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C or higher on February 8?
Ends Feb 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $499
Yes position
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 9?
Ends Feb 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $345.71
No position
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 26-27°F on January 29?
Ends Jan 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $110.14
No position
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?
Ends Jan 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $109.78
Yes position
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Multiplier
- 15.50x
- User PnL
- $20
Yes position
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?
Ends Jan 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.87
No position
Trump out as President before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $11.05
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?
Ends Apr 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $7.88
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $7
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $6
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?
Ends Jan 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.49
Yes position
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January?
Ends Feb 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.49
No position
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.3%
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $5
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $3.8
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.8
No position
Will Trump visit China by March 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.8
Yes position
Will Bitcoin hit $250k in 2024?
Ends Dec 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.57
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?No 92% 230 shares
- Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?No 96.6% 58 shares
- Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?Yes 3.4% 60 shares
- Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?Yes 3.5% 60 shares
- Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?No 91% 6 shares
- Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?No 92.6% 6 shares
- Epstein suicide note released by May 31?No 92% 5 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?No 94% 4.99 shares
- China x Philippines military clash before 2027?No 81% 6 shares
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?Yes 97.6% 5 shares
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?Yes 78% 5 shares
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?No 89% 5 shares