0x5f4fc359460Dbe427Ae7D4F81b4a34B3678Cc2F1-1766878911831

Implied probability: 32%
Current value: $41.22
Potential payout: $128.8
Potential profit: $87.58
Multiplier: 3.13x
User PnL: $4.28

No position

Will Warsh say "Job Market" during June Press Conference?

Implied probability: 35.5%
Current value: $37.7
Potential payout: $106.2
Potential profit: $68.5
Multiplier: 2.82x
User PnL: -$9.21

Yes position

Will Warsh say "Pandemic" during June Press Conference?

Implied probability: 37.5%
Current value: $35.24
Potential payout: $93.98
Potential profit: $58.74
Multiplier: 2.67x
User PnL: -$2.79

No position

Will Warsh say "Artificial Intelligence" or "AI" during June Press Conference?

Implied probability: 28.5%
Current value: $24.22
Potential payout: $85
Potential profit: $60.78
Multiplier: 3.51x
User PnL: -$1.45

No position

Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference?

Implied probability: 77.5%
Current value: $51.93
Potential payout: $67
Potential profit: $15.08
Multiplier: 1.29x
User PnL: -$1.6

Yes position

Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference?

Implied probability: 77%
Current value: $50.82
Potential payout: $66
Potential profit: $15.18
Multiplier: 1.30x
User PnL: $1.07

Yes position

Will Warsh say "FED" during June Press Conference?

Implied probability: 90%
Current value: $53.34
Potential payout: $59.26
Potential profit: $5.93
Multiplier: 1.11x
User PnL: $8.06

Yes position

Will Warsh say "Jerome" or "Powell" during June Press Conference?

Implied probability: 50%
Current value: $27.34
Potential payout: $54.67
Potential profit: $27.34
Multiplier: 2.00x
User PnL: -$12.61

No position

Will Warsh say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during June Press Conference?

Implied probability: 86%
Current value: $46.44
Potential payout: $54
Potential profit: $7.56
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: -$0.06

No position

Will "Tour De Force" be said during the Valorant Masters London 2026 Grand Finals?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 84.5%
Current value: $40.46
Potential payout: $47.88
Potential profit: $7.42
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: $0.42

Yes position

Will Warsh say "Chair" during June Press Conference?

Implied probability: 76.5%
Current value: $35.19
Potential payout: $46
Potential profit: $10.81
Multiplier: 1.31x
User PnL: -$0.49

No position

Will "IPO" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 22%
Current value: $9.9
Potential payout: $45
Potential profit: $35.1
Multiplier: 4.55x
User PnL: -$0.45

Yes position

Will Warsh say "Downside" during June Press Conference?

Implied probability: 40%
Current value: $17.12
Potential payout: $42.81
Potential profit: $25.69
Multiplier: 2.50x
User PnL: -$0.43

Yes position

Will Warsh say "Trend" during June Press Conference?

Implied probability: 42.5%
Current value: $18.01
Potential payout: $42.38
Potential profit: $24.37
Multiplier: 2.35x
User PnL: $0.21

No position

Will Warsh say "Balance Sheet" during June Press Conference?

Implied probability: 30.5%
Current value: $12.74
Potential payout: $41.76
Potential profit: $29.02
Multiplier: 3.28x
User PnL: $2.11

Yes position

Will Warsh say "Inflation" 50+ times during June Press Conference?

Implied probability: 23.5%
Current value: $9.72
Potential payout: $41.38
Potential profit: $31.66
Multiplier: 4.26x
User PnL: -$6.63

Yes position

Will "Run It Back" be said during the Valorant Masters London 2026 Grand Finals?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 56%
Current value: $21.84
Potential payout: $39
Potential profit: $17.16
Multiplier: 1.79x
User PnL: -$4.26

Yes position

Will Warsh say "Maximum Employment" during June Press Conference?

Implied probability: 89%
Current value: $32.03
Potential payout: $35.99
Potential profit: $3.96
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $6.62

Yes position

Will Warsh say "Inflation" 40+ times during June Press Conference?

Implied probability: 41%
Current value: $14.54
Potential payout: $35.46
Potential profit: $20.92
Multiplier: 2.44x
User PnL: -$3.47

Yes position

Will Warsh say "Depression" or "Recession" during June Press Conference?

Implied probability: 31%
Current value: $10.23
Potential payout: $33
Potential profit: $22.77
Multiplier: 3.23x
User PnL: -$2.52

Yes position

Will Warsh say "Dual Mandate" during June Press Conference?

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $24.34
Potential payout: $28.14
Potential profit: $3.8
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $9.43

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.24K

Yes position

Will Ciena (CIEN) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.28K

No position

Will SoFi Technologies (SOFI) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.41K

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $733.03

Yes position

Will MrBeast say "Subscribe" during his next YouTube video?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $563.23

No position

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $413.6

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - February 21, 1AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $350.45

Up position

Solana Up or Down - February 20, 11PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $274.26

Up position

XRP Up or Down - February 21, 8AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $263.39

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - February 22, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $250.12

Up position

XRP Up or Down - February 21, 3AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $246.56

Up position

XRP Up or Down - February 21, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $242.13

Down position

XRP Up or Down - February 22, 10PM ET

Ends Feb 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $241.91

Up position

Solana Up or Down - February 21, 10AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $236.64

Down position

Solana Up or Down - February 22, 2AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $225.06

No position

Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $193.77

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - February 21, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $193.07

Down position

Solana Up or Down - February 22, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $190.09

Up position

Solana Up or Down - February 22, 5PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $188.34

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET

Ends Feb 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $182.57

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 2AM ET

Ends Feb 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $179.14

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - February 20, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET