No position
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.5K
- Potential profit
- $1.5K
- User PnL
- -$2
Polymarket Trader
Asasdasasd
0x60130d6a9f7cfbdbc7408d2dbd8d02df5106777b
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $40.46
- Realized PnL
- $223.11
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 31 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $230
- Potential profit
- $230
- User PnL
- -$3.43
No position
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by June 30 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $130
- Potential profit
- $130
- User PnL
- -$1.04
Yes position
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 17.2%
- Current value
- $21.92
- Potential payout
- $127.12
- Potential profit
- $105.21
- Multiplier
- 5.80x
- User PnL
- $11.92
No position
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25?
Ends Jun 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$2
No position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?
Ends Mar 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $90.91
- Potential profit
- $90.91
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $0.17
- Potential payout
- $69.66
- Potential profit
- $69.48
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$1.83
Yes position
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.07
- Potential payout
- $66.67
- Potential profit
- $66.6
- Multiplier
- 1000.00x
- User PnL
- -$0.93
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6?
Ends Jun 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $59.29
- Potential profit
- $59.29
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25?
Ends Jun 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $52.63
- Potential profit
- $52.63
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $50
- User PnL
- -$1.35
No position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $40
- Potential profit
- $40
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $35.71
- Potential profit
- $35.71
- User PnL
- -$15
No position
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.7%
- Current value
- $0.85
- Potential payout
- $32.26
- Potential profit
- $31.4
- Multiplier
- 37.74x
- User PnL
- -$0.15
Yes position
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $31.63
- Potential profit
- $31.63
- User PnL
- -$10.1
Yes position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $30
- Potential profit
- $30
- User PnL
- -$5.01
Yes position
Will France strike Iran by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $30
- Potential profit
- $30
- User PnL
- -$5.54
Yes position
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 33.5%
- Current value
- $9.54
- Potential payout
- $28.47
- Potential profit
- $18.93
- Multiplier
- 2.99x
- User PnL
- -$0.46
No position
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings?
Ends May 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $25.64
- Potential profit
- $25.64
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
Will Nick Begich III advance from the AK-AL primary election?
Ends Aug 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.5%
- Current value
- $1.21
- Potential payout
- $22
- Potential profit
- $20.79
- Multiplier
- 18.18x
- User PnL
- -$0.79
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $21.98
- Potential profit
- $21.98
- User PnL
- -$7
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17?
Ends Jul 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.5%
- Current value
- $3.05
- Potential payout
- $21.05
- Potential profit
- $18
- Multiplier
- 6.90x
- User PnL
- -$0.95
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20.83
- Potential profit
- $20.83
- User PnL
- -$10
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 17.5%
- Current value
- $3.65
- Potential payout
- $20.83
- Potential profit
- $17.19
- Multiplier
- 5.71x
- User PnL
- -$1.35
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $45.15
Yes position
Diddy found guilty of sex trafficking?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $31.4
No position
Diddy found guilty of sex trafficking?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.8
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.21
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.6%
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $8.95
No position
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 5?
Ends Jun 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.44
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 93%
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $8.43
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.22
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.98
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29?
Ends Jun 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.58
N
No position
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.4%
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $6.46
Yes position
Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?
Ends Mar 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $6.4
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?
Ends Jan 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.02
Yes position
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $5.98
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- User PnL
- $5
No position
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election
Ends Jun 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.9
No position
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.71
Yes position
Will Iran strike nine or more countries in March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.6
No position
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026?
Ends Apr 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.59
No position
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.49
No position
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.96
No position
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- User PnL
- $3.93
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $3.91
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31?No 46% 10.87 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?No 91% 14.75 shares
- Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?Yes 35.1% 28.47 shares
- Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?No 88.9% 15.14 shares
- Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?No 14% 14.29 shares
- Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Yes 46% 4.35 shares
- Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Yes 4.2% 118.8 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?No 43% 11.63 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?No 97.7% 14.28 shares
- Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?No 45.5% 4.4 shares
- Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?No 29% 6.9 shares
- Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?No 46.5% 10.75 shares