monserrate92

Implied probability: 97.2%
Current value: $53.41
Potential payout: $54.97
Potential profit: $1.57
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $1.71

No position

Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Ends Oct 10, 2026

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $11.24
Potential payout: $12.15
Potential profit: $0.91
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $0.23

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $9.76
Potential profit: $9.76
User PnL: -$2.71

No position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $7.12
Potential profit: $7.12
User PnL: -$4.62

No position

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $6
Potential payout: $6.86
Potential profit: $0.86
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $0.78

No position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 98.8%
Current value: $6.62
Potential payout: $6.7
Potential profit: $0.08
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $0.06

No position

Will GameStop acquire eBay?

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $5.59
Potential payout: $6.39
Potential profit: $0.8
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $0.2

No position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $5.48
Potential payout: $6.34
Potential profit: $0.86
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $0.85

Yes position

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 81.5%
Current value: $4.36
Potential payout: $5.35
Potential profit: $0.99
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: -$0.19

No position

Macron out by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $5.22
Potential payout: $5.23
Potential profit: $0.01
User PnL: $0.22

No position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.6%
Current value: $4.46
Potential payout: $4.48
Potential profit: $0.02
User PnL: -$0

No position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 95.7%
Current value: $4.25
Potential payout: $4.44
Potential profit: $0.19
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: -$0.02

No position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 80.5%
Current value: $3.46
Potential payout: $4.3
Potential profit: $0.84
Multiplier: 1.24x
User PnL: $0.19

No position

Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 99.2%
Current value: $4.18
Potential payout: $4.21
Potential profit: $0.03
User PnL: $0.01

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4.03
Potential profit: $4.03
User PnL: -$1.05

No position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?

Ends May 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.9
Potential profit: $3.9
User PnL: -$2.58

No position

Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 80.5%
Current value: $3.1
Potential payout: $3.85
Potential profit: $0.75
Multiplier: 1.24x
User PnL: -$0.17

Yes position

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.52
Potential profit: $3.52
User PnL: -$1.09

Yes position

World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 86%
Current value: $2.24
Potential payout: $2.61
Potential profit: $0.37
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $0.13

No position

Trump out as President before 2027?

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $2.21
Potential payout: $2.45
Potential profit: $0.23
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $0.16

No position

Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 99.6%
Current value: $2.29
Potential payout: $2.3
Potential profit: $0.01
User PnL: $0.11

No position

Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026?

Implied probability: 99.2%
Current value: $2.03
Potential payout: $2.04
Potential profit: $0.02
User PnL: $0.03

No position

Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 99.2%
Current value: $2.02
Potential payout: $2.04
Potential profit: $0.02
User PnL: $0.02

No position

Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 98.8%
Current value: $2
Potential payout: $2.02
Potential profit: $0.03
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: -$0

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $37.13

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.39

No position

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.95

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.9

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.63

Yes position

Trump kiss by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.23

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.2

No position

Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.28

No position

Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.15

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.97

No position

Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February?

Ends Mar 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.91

No position

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?

Ends Nov 28, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.67

Cowboys position

Chiefs vs. Cowboys

Ends Nov 27, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.65

Yes position

Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.49

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.48

Yes position

Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.47

No position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.47

Yes position

Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.43

No position

Epstein suicide note released by May 8?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.43

Yes position

Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.42

No position

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.39

Yes position

Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.37

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026?