Yes position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1%
- Current value
- $69.4
- Potential payout
- $7.31K
- Potential profit
- $7.24K
- Multiplier
- 105.26x
- User PnL
- -$882.6
Polymarket Trader
Castwolffox
0x612b36dc9ab6d1371103557ec8ad9ed0d2d16fdd
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $2.08K
- Realized PnL
- $41.27K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 4
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 35.3%
- Current value
- $1.86K
- Potential payout
- $5.28K
- Potential profit
- $3.42K
- Multiplier
- 2.84x
- User PnL
- -$1.59K
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.8%
- Current value
- $107.68
- Potential payout
- $2.24K
- Potential profit
- $2.14K
- Multiplier
- 20.83x
- User PnL
- -$698.32
No position
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 73%
- Current value
- $43.59
- Potential payout
- $59.71
- Potential profit
- $16.12
- Multiplier
- 1.37x
- User PnL
- $2.99
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.58K
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.84K
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.56K
No position
Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?
Ends Mar 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.61K
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.49K
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.71K
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $712.71
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $465.81
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $356.06
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $216.82
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $212.11
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $163.25
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $98.52
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $78.59
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $24.07
No position
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- $22.6
No position
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.07
No position
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?
Ends Apr 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.95
Yes position
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian oil or gas facility?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.23
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 18?
Ends May 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.63
No position
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 2?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.15
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.35
No position
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.41
No position
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.1
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Israel closes its airspace by June 30?Yes 35.9% 2,243.4 shares
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?No 66.1% 1,218.57 shares
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?Yes 13% 7,305.03 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?No 68% 1,400 shares
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?No 70% 1,218.57 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?No 93% 212.76 shares
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?Yes 25% 1,104.16 shares
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?Yes 18.1% 1,104.16 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?No 94% 212.77 shares
- Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?No 85% 917 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?No 66% 1,881.16 shares
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?No 97.8% 548.26 shares