Yes position
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.9%
- Current value
- $184.1
- Potential payout
- $1.55K
- Potential profit
- $1.36K
- Multiplier
- 8.40x
- User PnL
- -$175.9
Polymarket Trader
0x61c3...71b3
0x61c35b4665f07d2d48af01ec35efb3a6233371b3
Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section
- Open value
- $416.39
- Realized PnL
- $12.55K
- Win rate
- 16.7%
- Open positions
- 8
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $1.64
- Potential payout
- $1.09K
- Potential profit
- $1.09K
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$438.36
Yes position
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 6%
- Current value
- $59.04
- Potential payout
- $984.08
- Potential profit
- $925.03
- Multiplier
- 16.67x
- User PnL
- -$441.96
Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13%
- Current value
- $101.92
- Potential payout
- $784.01
- Potential profit
- $682.09
- Multiplier
- 7.69x
- User PnL
- -$347.83
Yes position
Iran coup attempt by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $1.03
- Potential payout
- $343.12
- Potential profit
- $342.09
- Multiplier
- 333.33x
- User PnL
- -$79.97
Yes position
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.14
- Potential payout
- $288.99
- Potential profit
- $288.84
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$99.86
Yes position
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Current value
- $13.54
- Potential payout
- $208.33
- Potential profit
- $194.79
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- -$86.46
Yes position
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 41.5%
- Current value
- $54.97
- Potential payout
- $132.63
- Potential profit
- $77.65
- Multiplier
- 2.41x
- User PnL
- $4.97
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.07K
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.79K
Yes position
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $760.01
Ceasefire position
Iran leadership change or US x Iran ceasefire first?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $34.75
Yes position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87%
- Multiplier
- 1.15x
- User PnL
- -$7.42
Yes position
Foreign intervention in Gaza by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$36
Yes position
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$50
Yes position
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$50
Yes position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$99.5
Yes position
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$100
Yes position
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$100
Yes position
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$100
Yes position
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$100.5
Yes position
Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?
Ends Mar 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$142
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$147.27
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$172
Y
Yes position
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $100 and $150?
Ends Jun 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$500
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$501
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes 37.7% 132.63 shares
- Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $100 and $150?Yes 47.3% 1,057.5 shares
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?Yes 32.3% 310 shares
- Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?Yes 50.9% 984.08 shares
- Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?Yes 5.5% 1,809.09 shares
- Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?Yes 5.5% 18.18 shares
- Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?Yes 16.2% 3,079.63 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes 67% 148.51 shares
- Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?Yes 25.2% 197.2 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes 61% 163.11 shares
- US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?Yes 2.9% 1,818.18 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?Yes 12% 8,311.11 shares