0x6206...cf4c

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.03
Potential payout: $67.03
Potential profit: $67
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$13.11

No position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $57.48
Potential payout: $65.69
Potential profit: $8.21
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $57.48

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $6.7
Potential payout: $53.6
Potential profit: $46.9
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: $6.7

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 24.5%
Current value: $10.65
Potential payout: $43.48
Potential profit: $32.83
Multiplier: 4.08x
User PnL: $0.65

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $40.34
Potential payout: $40.44
Potential profit: $0.1
User PnL: $40.34

No position

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $37.36
Potential payout: $37.36
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $7.36

Yes position

Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Implied probability: 98.8%
Current value: $36.66
Potential payout: $37.12
Potential profit: $0.46
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $3.51

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June?

Implied probability: 2.1%
Current value: $0.67
Potential payout: $31.4
Potential profit: $30.73
Multiplier: 46.73x
User PnL: -$2.33

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?

Implied probability: 12.4%
Current value: $3.58
Potential payout: $28.96
Potential profit: $25.38
Multiplier: 8.10x
User PnL: -$6.57

No position

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $28.03
Potential payout: $28.03
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $5.63

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 37.5%
Current value: $10.48
Potential payout: $27.95
Potential profit: $17.47
Multiplier: 2.67x
User PnL: -$2.2

No position

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $25.87
Potential payout: $25.87
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $10.87

No position

Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Implied probability: 1.3%
Current value: $0.31
Potential payout: $25
Potential profit: $24.69
Multiplier: 80.00x
User PnL: -$2.69

No position

Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Implied probability: 99.1%
Current value: $22.39
Potential payout: $22.59
Potential profit: $0.2
User PnL: $1.39

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $2.85
Potential payout: $21.11
Potential profit: $18.26
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: -$0.34

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 4.1%
Current value: $0.84
Potential payout: $20.83
Potential profit: $19.99
Multiplier: 24.69x
User PnL: $0.84

No position

Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $19.73
Potential payout: $19.73
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $3.73

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June?

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $1.22
Potential payout: $18.82
Potential profit: $17.6
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: -$4.1

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026?

Ends Jun 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $16.95
Potential payout: $16.95
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $6.95

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $222.85

No position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $158.74

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $148.25

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?

Ends Jun 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $76.34

Yes position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $52.39

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?

Ends Jun 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $41.71

Gabriel Bonfim position

UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Card)

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.19

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $14.85

Yes position

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.79

Bryce Mitchell position

UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Card)

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.52

Yes position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.45

Diego Lopes position

UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card)

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.24

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.71

Édgar Cháirez position

UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims)

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.15

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?

Ends Jun 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.06

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.7

Yes position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $5.64

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?

Ends Jun 9, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $5.29

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 57.5%
Multiplier: 1.74x
User PnL: $5.22

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026?

Ends Jun 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.2

Iwo Baraniewski position

UFC Fight Night: Junior Tafa vs. Iwo Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.16

Brendan Allen position

UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Main Card)