Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.5%
- Current value
- $77.46
- Potential payout
- $1.03K
- Potential profit
- $955.4
- Multiplier
- 13.33x
- User PnL
- -$56.48
Polymarket Trader
fraceonfire
0x627d7fb0f1d5c6fbdd4be0721cb1d233db7f7d68
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $202.46
- Realized PnL
- $2.87K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 8
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Current value
- $125
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $875
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- $15
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $999.99
- Potential profit
- $999.99
- User PnL
- -$240
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $713.01
- Potential profit
- $713.01
- User PnL
- -$327.28
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $395.75
- Potential profit
- $395.75
- User PnL
- -$189.96
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $300
- User PnL
- -$18
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $257.53
- Potential profit
- $257.53
- User PnL
- -$96.98
Yes position
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 28, 2026?
Ends Apr 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $19.99
- Potential profit
- $19.99
- User PnL
- -$15.19
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $566.89
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $344.99
No position
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $203.68
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $199
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $167.06
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $157.95
No position
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $129.15
No position
Netanyahu out by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $127.33
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $120
No position
Will France strike Iran by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $94.94
Yes position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $84.01
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $78.88
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $78
No position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $70
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $70
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $55.99
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $50
No position
Israeli parliament dissolved by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $49
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $43
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $41.75
Yes position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $37.9
Yes position
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $37.2
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $32
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $27.39
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 95% 499.98 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No 11% 1,000 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes 13% 1,000 shares
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?No 60.6% 500 shares
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?No 53% 250 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?No 62% 499.99 shares
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?No 48% 395.75 shares
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?No 31% 200 shares
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?No 46% 188.73 shares
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?No 56% 113 shares
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?No 66% 200 shares
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?No 47% 380.23 shares