Yes position
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 0.9%
- Current value
- $37.78
- Potential payout
- $4.44K
- Potential profit
- $4.41K
- Multiplier
- 117.65x
- User PnL
- -$2.22
Polymarket Trader
Ethan561
0x629457659dab4cb08c62d8432d916ea80231ee4c
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $185.41
- Realized PnL
- -$290.56
- Win rate
- 37.5%
- Open positions
- 10
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 0.9%
- Current value
- $18.89
- Potential payout
- $2.22K
- Potential profit
- $2.2K
- Multiplier
- 117.65x
- User PnL
- -$1.11
Yes position
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 5.2%
- Current value
- $96.58
- Potential payout
- $1.86K
- Potential profit
- $1.76K
- Multiplier
- 19.23x
- User PnL
- $15.75
Yes position
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.7%
- Current value
- $6.63
- Potential payout
- $250
- Potential profit
- $243.38
- Multiplier
- 37.74x
- User PnL
- $1.63
Yes position
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.6%
- Current value
- $3.86
- Potential payout
- $69.01
- Potential profit
- $65.14
- Multiplier
- 17.86x
- User PnL
- -$1.14
No position
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 19.9%
- Current value
- $8.98
- Potential payout
- $45.25
- Potential profit
- $36.27
- Multiplier
- 5.04x
- User PnL
- -$1.02
Yes position
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.5%
- Current value
- $2.83
- Potential payout
- $33.34
- Potential profit
- $30.51
- Multiplier
- 11.76x
- User PnL
- -$2.17
Yes position
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.9%
- Current value
- $4.02
- Potential payout
- $31.25
- Potential profit
- $27.23
- Multiplier
- 7.78x
- User PnL
- -$0.98
Yes position
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13%
- Current value
- $3.61
- Potential payout
- $27.78
- Potential profit
- $24.17
- Multiplier
- 7.69x
- User PnL
- -$11.39
Yes position
Natural Disaster in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 20.5%
- Current value
- $2.23
- Potential payout
- $10.87
- Potential profit
- $8.64
- Multiplier
- 4.88x
- User PnL
- -$2.77
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US government shutdown Saturday?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20.8
Yes position
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?
Ends Jun 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.88
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $13
Yes position
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $12.94
Yes position
Will United States win on 2026-07-01?
Ends Jul 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.65
No position
ICE shooter charged by March 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.83
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.1
N
No position
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $3
Yes position
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship by January 9, 2026?
Ends Jan 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.17
Yes position
Will Jay Collins be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
Ends Aug 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Multiplier
- 153.85x
- User PnL
- -$0.64
Yes position
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$1.87
Yes position
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 40.3%
- Multiplier
- 2.48x
- User PnL
- -$5.07
Yes position
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.4%
- Multiplier
- 18.52x
- User PnL
- -$5.33
Yes position
Obama divorce in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
US congress stock trading ban in Trump's first 100 days?
Ends Apr 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$10.13
Yes position
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
Ends Aug 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.3%
- Multiplier
- 30.77x
- User PnL
- -$13.75
No position
TikTok removed from App Store in January?
Ends Jan 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$15
Yes position
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$16.28
Yes position
Zelenskyy wears a suit and tie during next Trump meeting?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$20
Yes position
Gavin Newsom out as California Governor in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$20
Yes position
Trump inauguration gets more viewers than Biden's?
Ends Jan 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$20
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$40
No position
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?
Ends Apr 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$190.85
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will United States win on 2026-07-01?Yes 99.7% 36.76 shares
- Will United States win on 2026-07-01?Yes 68% 36.76 shares
- Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?No 22.1% 45.25 shares
- Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?Yes 5% 125 shares
- Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?No 73% 17.8 shares
- Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?Yes 64% 46.88 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?No 69% 33.33 shares
- Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?No 56.2% 17.81 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?No 30% 33.33 shares
- Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes 40.3% 37.03 shares
- Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30?Yes 59% 22.25 shares
- US government shutdown Saturday?Yes 77% 40 shares