No position
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- Current value
- $324.56K
- Potential payout
- $327.02K
- Potential profit
- $2.45K
- User PnL
- $43.34K
Polymarket Trader
lava-lava
0x629bc4a1e53e1d475beb7ea3d388791e96dd995a
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $570.27K
- Realized PnL
- $1.18M
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.5%
- Current value
- $140.57K
- Potential payout
- $142.79K
- Potential profit
- $2.21K
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $7.4K
Yes position
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $35.95K
- Potential payout
- $41.11K
- Potential profit
- $5.16K
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $3.18K
Yes position
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 51.5%
- Current value
- $15.59K
- Potential payout
- $30.28K
- Potential profit
- $14.69K
- Multiplier
- 1.94x
- User PnL
- $2.81K
Yes position
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $44.09
- Potential payout
- $29.39K
- Potential profit
- $29.35K
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$4.13K
Yes position
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $11.68
- Potential payout
- $23.35K
- Potential profit
- $23.34K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$1.03K
No position
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 80.5%
- Current value
- $11.9K
- Potential payout
- $14.78K
- Potential profit
- $2.88K
- Multiplier
- 1.24x
- User PnL
- $196.75
No position
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.5%
- Current value
- $14.25K
- Potential payout
- $14.33K
- Potential profit
- $78.8
- User PnL
- $3.71K
Yes position
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $6.61
- Potential payout
- $13.22K
- Potential profit
- $13.21K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$2.77K
Yes position
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $5
- Potential payout
- $10K
- Potential profit
- $9.99K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$75
Yes position
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 25.5%
- Current value
- $2.12K
- Potential payout
- $8.33K
- Potential profit
- $6.2K
- Multiplier
- 3.92x
- User PnL
- $158.28
Yes position
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.4%
- Current value
- $28.99
- Potential payout
- $8.28K
- Potential profit
- $8.25K
- Multiplier
- 285.71x
- User PnL
- -$1.3K
No position
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- Current value
- $8.19K
- Potential payout
- $8.22K
- Potential profit
- $28.77
- User PnL
- $1.34K
No position
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.3%
- Current value
- $7.72K
- Potential payout
- $8.02K
- Potential profit
- $300.63
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $477
Yes position
Will Motoristé get between 7% and 9% of the vote in the Czech election?
Ends Oct 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $7.58K
- Potential profit
- $7.58K
- User PnL
- -$1.97K
Yes position
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $7.22K
- Potential profit
- $7.22K
- User PnL
- -$333.9
No position
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 46.5%
- Current value
- $3.29K
- Potential payout
- $7.06K
- Potential profit
- $3.78K
- Multiplier
- 2.15x
- User PnL
- -$999.06
Yes position
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $3.52
- Potential payout
- $7.04K
- Potential profit
- $7.03K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$189.02
No position
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Current value
- $5.91K
- Potential payout
- $7K
- Potential profit
- $1.08K
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $540.5
No position
Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6.78K
- Potential profit
- $6.78K
- User PnL
- -$1.55K
Yes position
Will Jacob Elordi win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6.67K
- Potential profit
- $6.67K
- User PnL
- -$46.53
Yes position
Will Daniel Băluță get between 15% and 20% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?
Ends Dec 7, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6.65K
- Potential profit
- $6.65K
- User PnL
- -$619.24
No position
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.7%
- Current value
- $109.53
- Potential payout
- $6.64K
- Potential profit
- $6.53K
- Multiplier
- 60.61x
- User PnL
- -$3.22K
No position
Will Andrew Cuomo’s RCV margin of victory be less than 5%?
Ends Jun 24, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6.54K
- Potential profit
- $6.54K
- User PnL
- -$2.28K
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?
Ends May 18, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $118.86K
Yes position
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.8%
- Multiplier
- 133.33x
- User PnL
- $115.5K
Yes position
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $104.07K
No position
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?
Ends May 18, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $95.38K
Yes position
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%?
Ends May 18, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $74.11K
No position
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $67.35K
Yes position
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 4, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $63.48K
No position
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.6%
- Multiplier
- 64.52x
- User PnL
- $62.92K
No position
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $49.6K
Yes position
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $39.99K
Yes position
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $37.9K
Yes position
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?
Ends Mar 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $36.35K
Yes position
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
Ends Jan 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $36.05K
Yes position
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?
Ends Aug 19, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $34.15K
No position
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?
Ends Mar 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $30.14K
Yes position
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $30.08K
Yu-ih position
Who will get more votes in Taiwan Election: Hou Yu-ih (侯友宜) or Ko Wen-je (柯文哲)?
Ends Jan 13, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25.03K
Yes position
Will Erdoğan win the 2023 Turkish presidential election?
Ends May 28, 2023- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.95K
Yes position
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
Ends Jan 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $24.18K
Yes position
Will Fidesz-KDNP win <70 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.32K
Yes position
Will Anca Alexandrescu finish second in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election?
Ends Dec 7, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.14K
Yes position
Will António José Seguro win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
Ends Jan 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.79K
Yes position
Will Tisza win at least 130 seats?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.02K
No position
Macron out in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.5K
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%?Yes 20% 7.3 shares
- Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%?Yes 19% 120.8 shares
- Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%?Yes 13.4% 774.61 shares
- Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%?No 51.5% 1,080.5 shares
- Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%?No 50% 386.85 shares
- Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%?No 48% 437.45 shares
- Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%?Yes 93.2% 470.4 shares
- Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%?Yes 82% 171.24 shares
- Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%?Yes 81.4% 1,036.12 shares
- Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%?Yes 80.7% 715.25 shares
- Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%?Yes 80.5% 1,228.87 shares
- Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%?Yes 78% 309 shares