Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.5%
- Current value
- $4.56
- Potential payout
- $53.66
- Potential profit
- $49.1
- Multiplier
- 11.76x
- User PnL
- -$4.44
Polymarket Trader
0x6311...7429
0x631160699aa3f36c24117a5b6d19af12a20e7429
Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section
- Open value
- $58.02
- Realized PnL
- $153.83
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 10
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?
Ends Jul 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 91%
- Current value
- $33.75
- Potential payout
- $37.08
- Potential profit
- $3.34
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $4.51
Yes position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.5%
- Current value
- $0.83
- Potential payout
- $15.17
- Potential profit
- $14.34
- Multiplier
- 18.18x
- User PnL
- -$4.13
No position
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $9.31
- Potential profit
- $9.3
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$2
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Current value
- $8.46
- Potential payout
- $8.95
- Potential profit
- $0.49
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $3.12
No position
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?
Ends Jul 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 9%
- Current value
- $0.5
- Potential payout
- $5.57
- Potential profit
- $5.06
- Multiplier
- 11.11x
- User PnL
- -$0.5
No position
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.9%
- Current value
- $4.72
- Potential payout
- $4.92
- Potential profit
- $0.2
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $0.22
Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Current value
- $0.41
- Potential payout
- $3.03
- Potential profit
- $2.62
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- -$0.59
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $2.37
- Potential payout
- $2.74
- Potential profit
- $0.37
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $0.37
Yes position
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $2.42
- Potential payout
- $2.42
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $0.92
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $72.35
Yes position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.58
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.9
Yes position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.66
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.65
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?
Ends May 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.42
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.55
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?
Ends May 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.07
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.38
Yes position
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.17
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?
Ends May 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.95
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.84
Yes position
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.82
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.69
No position
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.69
No position
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.46
No position
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.27
Yes position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.25
Yes position
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15?
Ends May 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.25
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.2
No position
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.2
Yes position
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.18
No position
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.16
Y
Yes position
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.14
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 73% 1.37 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Yes 20% 5 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Yes 25% 5.6 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 57% 5.86 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 58% 1.72 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Yes 56% 2.45 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Yes 56% 2.13 shares
- Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?Yes 62% 2.42 shares
- Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?No 21% 4.76 shares
- Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?No 22% 4.55 shares
- Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?Yes 84% 1.19 shares
- Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?Yes 81.7% 1.22 shares