No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Current value
- $259.99
- Potential payout
- $1.93K
- Potential profit
- $1.67K
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- $48.15
Polymarket Trader
Shadursky
0x63c6169ce52343b2de939559cfc7cc42d66a3e53
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $6.2K
- Realized PnL
- $2.97K
- Win rate
- 91.7%
- Open positions
- 21
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97%
- Current value
- $1.7K
- Potential payout
- $1.75K
- Potential profit
- $52.59
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $97.2
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Current value
- $791.49
- Potential payout
- $837.56
- Potential profit
- $46.07
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $64.1
No position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $625.76
- Potential payout
- $691.45
- Potential profit
- $65.69
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $17.29
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.9%
- Current value
- $471.62
- Potential payout
- $492.04
- Potential profit
- $20.42
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- -$0.74
Yes position
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.4%
- Current value
- $447.77
- Potential payout
- $455.28
- Potential profit
- $7.51
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $15.25
Yes position
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.8%
- Current value
- $369.24
- Potential payout
- $385.63
- Potential profit
- $16.39
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $41.46
Yes position
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 80.5%
- Current value
- $266.58
- Potential payout
- $331.16
- Potential profit
- $64.58
- Multiplier
- 1.24x
- User PnL
- -$4.97
Yes position
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.8%
- Current value
- $323.59
- Potential payout
- $327.69
- Potential profit
- $4.1
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $9.01
Yes position
Starmer out by August 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.7%
- Current value
- $283.9
- Potential payout
- $290.73
- Potential profit
- $6.83
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $4.34
No position
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $200.68
- Potential payout
- $221.75
- Potential profit
- $21.07
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $14.41
Yes position
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $109.97
- Potential payout
- $110.03
- Potential profit
- $0.06
- User PnL
- $45.06
Yes position
Starmer out by October 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 98%
- Current value
- $79.13
- Potential payout
- $80.79
- Potential profit
- $1.66
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $0.61
No position
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26?
Ends Jun 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 98%
- Current value
- $69.26
- Potential payout
- $70.67
- Potential profit
- $1.41
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- -$0.42
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $58.28
- Potential profit
- $58.28
- User PnL
- -$48.43
No position
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- Current value
- $57.95
- Potential payout
- $58.15
- Potential profit
- $0.2
- User PnL
- $1.72
No position
Will GameStop acquire eBay?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $50.13
- Potential payout
- $57.29
- Potential profit
- $7.16
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- -$0.29
No position
Weed rescheduled by June 30?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 99%
- Current value
- $54.63
- Potential payout
- $55.18
- Potential profit
- $0.55
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $24
Yes position
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Current value
- $26.66
- Potential payout
- $29.79
- Potential profit
- $3.13
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $18.62
No position
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.5%
- Current value
- $11.36
- Potential payout
- $11.53
- Potential profit
- $0.17
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $1.21
Yes position
Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6.11
- Potential profit
- $6.11
- User PnL
- -$5.38
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $983.35
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $930.6
No position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $356.11
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- User PnL
- $336.27
Yes position
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $111.17
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $78.95
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $77.94
No position
US forces enter Iran by March 7?
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.83
Yes position
Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 30-April 5?
Ends Apr 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.06
No position
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- User PnL
- $20.34
Yes position
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $17.04
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.1
Yes position
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.05
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.53
Yes position
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.18
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.96
Yes position
Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.89
No position
Will 15-19 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 23-29?
Ends Mar 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.49
Yes position
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 3?
Ends Apr 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.42
Yes position
Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 23-29?
Ends Mar 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.27
Yes position
Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?
Ends Apr 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.23
Yes position
Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.06
Yes position
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.19
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.8
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will GameStop acquire eBay?No 88% 5.88 shares
- Will GameStop acquire eBay?No 88% 12.5 shares
- Starmer out by August 31, 2026?Yes 97.2% 83.13 shares
- Starmer out by October 31, 2026?Yes 97.2% 80.79 shares
- Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Yes 95% 76.08 shares
- Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Yes 95% 24.28 shares
- Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Yes 95% 100 shares
- Will GameStop acquire eBay?No 88% 6.46 shares
- Will GameStop acquire eBay?No 88% 12.55 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 96% 64.63 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 96% 312.13 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 96% 72.57 shares