NorthLuopan

Implied probability: 1%
Current value: $0.95
Potential payout: $95
Potential profit: $94.05
Multiplier: 100.00x
User PnL: -$18.05

Yes position

Will 7-8 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?

Implied probability: 8.8%
Current value: $7.48
Potential payout: $85
Potential profit: $77.52
Multiplier: 11.36x
User PnL: -$3.14

Yes position

Will 5-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?

Implied probability: 35%
Current value: $29.75
Potential payout: $85
Potential profit: $55.25
Multiplier: 2.86x
User PnL: $19.12

Yes position

Will more than 16 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?

Implied probability: 2.3%
Current value: $1.96
Potential payout: $85
Potential profit: $83.05
Multiplier: 43.48x
User PnL: -$8.67

Yes position

Will 13-14 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?

Implied probability: 2.4%
Current value: $2
Potential payout: $85
Potential profit: $83
Multiplier: 42.55x
User PnL: -$8.63

Yes position

Will 9-10 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?

Implied probability: 11%
Current value: $9.35
Potential payout: $85
Potential profit: $75.65
Multiplier: 9.09x
User PnL: -$1.28

Yes position

Will 11-12 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?

Implied probability: 14.6%
Current value: $12.37
Potential payout: $85
Potential profit: $72.63
Multiplier: 6.87x
User PnL: -$23.69

Yes position

Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $0.33
Potential payout: $73
Potential profit: $72.67
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$36.17

Yes position

Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $3.22
Potential payout: $59
Potential profit: $55.78
Multiplier: 18.35x
User PnL: -$5.21

Yes position

Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on IPO day?

Implied probability: 1.9%
Current value: $1.12
Potential payout: $59
Potential profit: $57.88
Multiplier: 52.63x
User PnL: -$7.31

Yes position

Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day?

Implied probability: 14%
Current value: $8.26
Potential payout: $59
Potential profit: $50.74
Multiplier: 7.14x
User PnL: -$0.17

Yes position

Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day?

Implied probability: 8.6%
Current value: $5.1
Potential payout: $59
Potential profit: $53.9
Multiplier: 11.57x
User PnL: -$3.33

Yes position

Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day?

Implied probability: 15.7%
Current value: $9.23
Potential payout: $59
Potential profit: $49.77
Multiplier: 6.39x
User PnL: $0.8

Yes position

Will Ted Cruz post 20-39 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $48
Potential profit: $48
User PnL: -$24

Yes position

Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $48
Potential profit: $48
User PnL: -$4.36

Yes position

Will Ted Cruz post 160-179 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $48
Potential profit: $48
User PnL: -$4.36

Yes position

Will Ted Cruz post 40-59 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $48
Potential profit: $48
User PnL: -$4.36

Yes position

Will Ted Cruz post 200+ posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $48
Potential profit: $48
User PnL: -$4.36

Yes position

Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $48
Potential profit: $48
User PnL: -$4.36

Yes position

Will Ted Cruz post 180-199 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $48
Potential profit: $48
User PnL: -$4.36

Yes position

Will Ted Cruz post 0-19 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $48
Potential profit: $48
User PnL: -$24

Yes position

Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $48
Potential profit: $48
User PnL: -$4.36

Yes position

Will Ted Cruz post 60-79 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $48
Potential profit: $48
User PnL: -$4.36

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will 11-12 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?

Implied probability: 85.5%
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $28.5

No position

Will Zelenskyy post 0-19 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026?

Ends Jun 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.86

Yes position

Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 45.5%
Multiplier: 2.20x
User PnL: $23.68

No position

Will Ted Cruz post 20-39 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.64

No position

Will Ted Cruz post 0-19 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.64

No position

Will Ted Cruz post 20-39 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18

No position

Will Ted Cruz post 0-19 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18

No position

Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.95

Yes position

Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.46

Yes position

Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $800b on June 30?

Implied probability: 98.7%
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $14.28

Yes position

Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.93

Yes position

Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 82%
Multiplier: 1.22x
User PnL: $13.91

No position

Will NYC Mayor post 0-19 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.5

Yes position

Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.78

No position

Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.75

Yes position

Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.74

No position

Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026?

Ends Jun 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.68

No position

Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026?

Ends Jun 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.68

Yes position

Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $12.14

Yes position

Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.06

Yes position

Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.75T and 2.00T?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.88

No position

Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.86

No position

Will Ted Cruz post 60-79 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.86

No position

Will Ted Cruz post 40-59 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026?