Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 21?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.02
- Potential payout
- $45.1
- Potential profit
- $45.08
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$12.46
Polymarket Trader
vargasnorman
0x640c378f4bf7743d4bf21ea9495ee6b7eaf07010
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $0.03
- Realized PnL
- $119.51
- Win rate
- 41.7%
- Open positions
- 2
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.01
- Potential payout
- $12.39
- Potential profit
- $12.38
- Multiplier
- 1000.00x
- User PnL
- -$4.08
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 10?
Ends Jun 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.71
Flames position
Sharks vs. Flames
Ends Nov 13, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.5
Rockets position
Rockets vs. Bucks
Ends Nov 9, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.92
Down position
Ethereum Up or Down on February 18?
Ends Feb 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.12
No position
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14?
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.4
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 36°F or higher on February 23?
Ends Feb 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.8
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on February 15?
Ends Feb 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.62
No position
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13?
Ends Jun 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.81
No position
Bitcoin all time high by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.01
No position
Will China unban Bitcoin by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.01
No position
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals?
Ends Jun 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.03
Yes position
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.07
Yes position
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.1
Yes position
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?
Ends Apr 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.23
No position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 76.8%
- Multiplier
- 1.30x
- User PnL
- -$0.24
No position
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 99.2%
- User PnL
- -$0.24
Yes position
Will the Boston Celtics win the Eastern Conference?
Ends Jun 5, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.24
No position
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- User PnL
- -$0.25
No position
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 98.3%
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- -$0.25
No position
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting?
Ends Jun 18, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.26
No position
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.28
No position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.39
Yes position
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?
Ends May 18, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.39
Yes position
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.41
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 21?Yes 27.7% 45.1 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19?Yes 33% 12.39 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18?Yes 30% 19.1 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16?No 41% 38.51 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14?No 60% 38.5 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13?No 71% 26.94 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 10?Yes 30.3% 35.45 shares
- Predators vs. StarsPredators 42% 55.93 shares
- Kraken vs. BluesKraken 44% 13.52 shares
- Heat vs. 76ersHeat 46% 21.59 shares
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 36°F or higher on February 23?Yes 39.4% 17.82 shares
- Ethereum Up or Down on February 21?Down 57% 46.28 shares