Polymarket Trader

Alderamin

0x64605f10f0bd8d7b465c226eccfa5425b4ab76db

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $592.62
Realized PnL: $57.49
Win rate: 58.3%
Open positions: 9
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 24.5%
Current value: $573.39
Potential payout: $2.34K
Potential profit: $1.77K
Multiplier: 4.08x
User PnL: -$28.61

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$7

Yes position

Will Russia capture all of Lyman by June 30, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $95.86
Potential profit: $95.86
User PnL: -$11.42

Yes position

McDonald's CEO out by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $91.36
Potential profit: $91.36
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 20.1%
Current value: $9.17
Potential payout: $45.76
Potential profit: $36.58
Multiplier: 4.99x
User PnL: -$0.83

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 14.5%
Current value: $5.58
Potential payout: $38.46
Potential profit: $32.88
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: $0.58

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $18.37
Potential profit: $18.37
User PnL: -$9

Yes position

Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $18.18
Potential profit: $18.18
User PnL: -$10

No position

Trump declares election interference national emergency?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 73.5%
Current value: $4.48
Potential payout: $6.1
Potential profit: $1.62
Multiplier: 1.36x
User PnL: -$0.52

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26.1

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET

Ends Feb 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.74

Yes position

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.73

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET

Ends Mar 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.28

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET

Ends Feb 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.15

Yes position

Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.9

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.28

Lakers position

Lakers vs. Warriors

Ends Mar 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.33

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.5

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET

Ends Mar 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.37

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET

Ends Feb 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.33

No position

US x Iran ceasefire by March 2?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.08

Israel position

Will US or Israel strike Iran first?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 50%
Multiplier: 2.00x
User PnL: $0.7

No position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$5

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET

Ends Feb 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$5

No position

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

US seizes an Iran-linked oil tanker by March 7?

Ends Mar 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$5

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET

Ends Mar 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$5

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$5

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET

Ends Feb 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$5

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET

Ends Mar 2, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$5

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET

Ends Feb 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$6

Yes position

Will Russia capture Lyman by March 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$10

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?

Yes 25.5% 2,304.64 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET

Up 49% 18.37 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET

Up 7% 100 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET

Down 87% 8.62 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET

Down 58% 8.62 shares
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?

Yes 42% 35.71 shares
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?

Yes 57% 26.31 shares
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by June 30, 2026?

Yes 11% 84.91 shares
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

No 91% 10.2 shares
US forces enter Iran by March 31?

Yes 0.1% 60.36 shares
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by June 30, 2026?

Yes 19% 10.95 shares
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?

Yes 55% 18.18 shares