Periculum

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $187.95
Potential profit: $187.95
User PnL: -$118.4

Yes position

Will there be at least 1,150 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $157.71
Potential profit: $157.71
User PnL: -$0.5

Yes position

Will Morocco vs. Burundi end in a draw?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $142.86
Potential profit: $142.86
User PnL: -$1

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $101.35
Potential profit: $101.35
User PnL: -$2

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $76.92
Potential profit: $76.92
User PnL: -$1

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET

Ends Feb 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $62.48
Potential profit: $62.48
User PnL: -$2

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $61.22
Potential profit: $61.22
User PnL: -$19.83

Yes position

Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?

Ends Jun 25, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $59.6
Potential profit: $59.6
User PnL: -$17.78

Yes position

Trump out as President before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $4.97
Potential payout: $58.49
Potential profit: $53.52
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$2.03

Yes position

Péter Magyar sextape released by March 31

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $56.49
Potential profit: $56.49
User PnL: -$17

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $43.11
Potential profit: $43.11
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will Slovakia win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?

Ends Feb 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $35.71
Potential profit: $35.71
User PnL: -$1

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $33.33
Potential profit: $33.33
User PnL: -$1

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $30.82
Potential profit: $30.82
User PnL: -$19.73

Yes position

Will António José Seguro win the second round by at least 50%?

Ends Feb 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $30
User PnL: -$1.47

Yes position

Will Hungary win on 2026-03-31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $27.78
Potential profit: $27.78
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $25
Potential profit: $25
User PnL: -$1

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $24.99
Potential profit: $24.99
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) win at least one seat in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $24.17
Potential profit: $24.17
User PnL: -$11

Yes position

Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?

Ends Mar 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $24.03
Potential profit: $24.03
User PnL: -$20

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $22.8
Potential profit: $22.8
User PnL: -$10.83

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $21.94
Potential profit: $21.94
User PnL: -$19.97

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $240.43

Yes position

Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $44.26

Yes position

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $42.16

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $32.36

Yes position

Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.53

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.74

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.36

Yes position

Will United States win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?

Ends Feb 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.22

Yes position

Will voter turnout be 77–80% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.83

Yes position

US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.64

Yes position

Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-03-01?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.38

Yes position

Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?

Ends Mar 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.8

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.79

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET

Ends Feb 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.92

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.54

Yes position

Will Kosovo win on 2026-03-26?

Ends Mar 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.5

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.49

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.34

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.28

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.84

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.63

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.75

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET