No position
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 78.6%
- Current value
- $435.67
- Potential payout
- $554.28
- Potential profit
- $118.62
- Multiplier
- 1.27x
- User PnL
- $51.27
Polymarket Trader
OtaconX
0x6537f875a434ec9a8425b83339c6e0889f7d0bfa
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $2.39K
- Realized PnL
- $777.09
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.9%
- Current value
- $302.43
- Potential payout
- $305.95
- Potential profit
- $3.52
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $160.34
No position
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 67.5%
- Current value
- $171.2
- Potential payout
- $253.62
- Potential profit
- $82.43
- Multiplier
- 1.48x
- User PnL
- -$3.8
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $242.59
- Potential profit
- $242.59
- User PnL
- -$128.95
No position
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?
Ends Dec 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 77.3%
- Current value
- $177.67
- Potential payout
- $229.99
- Potential profit
- $52.32
- Multiplier
- 1.29x
- User PnL
- $2.67
No position
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.9%
- Current value
- $224.95
- Potential payout
- $229.89
- Potential profit
- $4.94
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $24.94
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 55.5%
- Current value
- $104.72
- Potential payout
- $188.68
- Potential profit
- $83.96
- Multiplier
- 1.80x
- User PnL
- $4.72
No position
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 92%
- Current value
- $166.38
- Potential payout
- $180.85
- Potential profit
- $14.47
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $66.91
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 72.5%
- Current value
- $130.5
- Potential payout
- $180
- Potential profit
- $49.5
- Multiplier
- 1.38x
- User PnL
- -$4.5
No position
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Current value
- $166.05
- Potential payout
- $175.71
- Potential profit
- $9.66
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $79.95
No position
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.05
- Potential payout
- $102.74
- Potential profit
- $102.69
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$74.95
No position
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.8%
- Current value
- $85.38
- Potential payout
- $88.25
- Potential profit
- $2.87
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $8.38
No position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.1%
- Current value
- $80.79
- Potential payout
- $81.52
- Potential profit
- $0.73
- User PnL
- $5.79
No position
Les Wexner charged by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- Current value
- $80.28
- Potential payout
- $80.65
- Potential profit
- $0.36
- User PnL
- $5.28
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $54.3
- Potential payout
- $60
- Potential profit
- $5.7
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $17.1
No position
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.6%
- Current value
- $58.95
- Potential payout
- $59.82
- Potential profit
- $0.87
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $2.42
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.1%
- Current value
- $1.63
- Potential payout
- $53.56
- Potential profit
- $51.93
- Multiplier
- 32.79x
- User PnL
- -$8.37
No position
Will Russia enter Borova by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.4%
- Current value
- $46.65
- Potential payout
- $48.39
- Potential profit
- $1.74
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $1.65
No position
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.2%
- Current value
- $29.34
- Potential payout
- $31.84
- Potential profit
- $2.5
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $1.34
No position
Will Toby Doeden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 51%
- Current value
- $14.3
- Potential payout
- $28.04
- Potential profit
- $13.74
- Multiplier
- 1.96x
- User PnL
- -$3.34
No position
SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 77.5%
- Current value
- $19.05
- Potential payout
- $24.58
- Potential profit
- $5.53
- Multiplier
- 1.29x
- User PnL
- $0.37
No position
Will any country join the Board of Peace by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96%
- Current value
- $19.03
- Potential payout
- $19.84
- Potential profit
- $0.8
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $3.1
No position
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.3%
- Current value
- $17.56
- Potential payout
- $18.06
- Potential profit
- $0.5
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $1.51
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $12.54
- Potential profit
- $12.54
- User PnL
- -$10.03
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $147.36
No position
Israel closes its airspace by June 9?
Ends Jun 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $127.48
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $115.78
No position
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $61.21
No position
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $34.01
No position
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $33.59
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $29.12
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $27.54
No position
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $27.54
No position
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.48
No position
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.4
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.31
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.79
No position
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 98%
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $13.53
No position
Will Otto Ritter win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?
Ends Apr 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.31
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.9
No position
Will Mark Lynch be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.67
No position
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.49
No position
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- User PnL
- $8.87
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.3%
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $6.21
No position
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.01
No position
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.35
No position
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.8
No position
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 62%
- Multiplier
- 1.61x
- User PnL
- $4.35
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?No 75% 180 shares
- Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?No 76.1% 229.99 shares
- Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?No 69% 253.62 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes 6% 294.12 shares
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?No 81.6% 198.53 shares
- Will Russia enter Borova by June 30?No 93% 48.39 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No 53% 188.68 shares
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes 18.7% 53.56 shares
- Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Yes 64% 468.64 shares
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?No 70% 285.75 shares
- Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2026 meeting?No 98.8% 6.22 shares
- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?No 95.3% 85.22 shares