Yes position
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on May 17?
Ends May 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5K
- Potential profit
- $5K
- User PnL
- -$5.09
Polymarket Trader
1walrus
0x6560abb717a8e5f3afaacd1a31e9c03eed71e164
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $6.16K
- Realized PnL
- $64.18K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98%
- Current value
- $3.91K
- Potential payout
- $3.99K
- Potential profit
- $79.85
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $48.2
Yes position
Will "Ghost" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?
Ends May 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.54K
- Potential profit
- $1.54K
- User PnL
- -$11.09
Yes position
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $680b and $690b on May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.05K
- Potential profit
- $1.05K
- User PnL
- -$130.53
Yes position
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.7%
- Current value
- $32.35
- Potential payout
- $886.21
- Potential profit
- $853.86
- Multiplier
- 27.40x
- User PnL
- -$38.55
Yes position
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $660b and $670b on May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $850.63
- Potential profit
- $850.63
- User PnL
- -$89.1
Yes position
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy explode?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 74%
- Current value
- $605.53
- Potential payout
- $818.28
- Potential profit
- $212.75
- Multiplier
- 1.35x
- User PnL
- $8.53
Yes position
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $650b and $660b on May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $740.55
- Potential profit
- $740.55
- User PnL
- -$80.42
Yes position
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $800b on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.9%
- Current value
- $645.9
- Potential payout
- $653.08
- Potential profit
- $7.18
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $96.86
Yes position
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $640b and $650b on May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $614.81
- Potential profit
- $614.81
- User PnL
- -$70.63
Yes position
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $670b and $680b on May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $582.85
- Potential profit
- $582.85
- User PnL
- -$67.09
No position
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 28, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $554.9
- Potential profit
- $554.9
- User PnL
- -$1.57
No position
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $550
- Potential profit
- $550
- User PnL
- -$6.75
No position
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 45%
- Current value
- $244.46
- Potential payout
- $543.25
- Potential profit
- $298.79
- Multiplier
- 2.22x
- User PnL
- $14.45
Yes position
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.5%
- Current value
- $24.14
- Potential payout
- $536.54
- Potential profit
- $512.39
- Multiplier
- 22.22x
- User PnL
- -$37.7
Yes position
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $531.88
- Potential profit
- $531.88
- User PnL
- -$245
Yes position
Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?
Ends May 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $500
- User PnL
- -$17.5
Yes position
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.5%
- Current value
- $2.5
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $497.5
- Multiplier
- 200.00x
- User PnL
- -$20
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $499.99
- Potential profit
- $499.99
- User PnL
- -$20
Yes position
World Cup: Any Player to Score a Hat Trick?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Current value
- $407.59
- Potential payout
- $476.71
- Potential profit
- $69.12
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- -$16.31
No position
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 61.5%
- Current value
- $258.68
- Potential payout
- $420.62
- Potential profit
- $161.94
- Multiplier
- 1.63x
- User PnL
- $66.27
Yes position
Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.8%
- Current value
- $19
- Potential payout
- $400
- Potential profit
- $381
- Multiplier
- 21.05x
- User PnL
- -$29
Yes position
Will Z.ai have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.4%
- Current value
- $9.32
- Potential payout
- $388.25
- Potential profit
- $378.93
- Multiplier
- 41.67x
- User PnL
- $3.7
No position
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on May 17?
Ends May 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $357.67
- Potential profit
- $357.67
- User PnL
- -$1
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $18.51K
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- $14.62K
Yes position
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $640b and $650b on March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.22K
No position
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $3.76K
No position
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $3.48K
Yes position
Will there be exactly 2 major space weather events this week?
Ends Apr 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.58K
No position
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?
Ends May 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.17K
No position
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 21, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.53K
No position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.5K
Yes position
Will the first eaglet hatch on April 11, 2026?
Ends Apr 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.26K
Yes position
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.15K
Yes position
Will MrBeast's million-dollar puzzle be solved by March 15?
Ends Feb 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.06K
No position
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $710b on March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.03K
Yes position
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $650b and $660b on April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $902.01
Yes position
Will Jeff Bezos be 3rd richest person on March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $856.16
No position
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $700b on February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $736.13
Yes position
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $721.69
Yes position
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $660b and $670b on February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $701.96
No position
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $672.43
No position
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $640b and $650b on April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $625.76
Yes position
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 225,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?
Ends May 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $607.58
Yes position
Will the first eaglet hatch on April 9, 2026?
Ends Apr 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $550.28
Yes position
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $482.45
No position
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $468.9
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Z.ai have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes 1.4% 388.25 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 93% 3,000 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 92.7% 2,000 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 93.3% 3,053.76 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 79.7% 1,504.97 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 73.4% 272.48 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 73.9% 541.27 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?No 62% 32.26 shares
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31?No 48.5% 200 shares
- SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?Yes 33% 84.97 shares
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31?No 43% 200 shares
- Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?No 49.9% 219.78 shares