No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 78.5%
- Current value
- $8.57K
- Potential payout
- $10.91K
- Potential profit
- $2.35K
- Multiplier
- 1.27x
- User PnL
- -$100.21
Polymarket Trader
garlictrump
@fake_0_0_
0x6630c34aa5836d4610fb6303d0ee9d966cd42f4e
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $29.21K
- Realized PnL
- $15.44K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 22
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.2%
- Current value
- $8K
- Potential payout
- $8.07K
- Potential profit
- $68.58
- User PnL
- $915.34
No position
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.6%
- Current value
- $2.75K
- Potential payout
- $2.91K
- Potential profit
- $158.32
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $289.65
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.1%
- Current value
- $2.7K
- Potential payout
- $2.78K
- Potential profit
- $80.56
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $197.22
Yes position
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 81%
- Current value
- $1.63K
- Potential payout
- $2.01K
- Potential profit
- $381.83
- Multiplier
- 1.23x
- User PnL
- -$100.9
Yes position
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.3%
- Current value
- $1.41K
- Potential payout
- $1.48K
- Potential profit
- $70.11
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $111.54
No position
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 35.5%
- Current value
- $406.02
- Potential payout
- $1.14K
- Potential profit
- $737.7
- Multiplier
- 2.82x
- User PnL
- -$58.76
N
No position
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.6%
- Current value
- $1.09K
- Potential payout
- $1.13K
- Potential profit
- $38.88
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $334.87
Y
Yes position
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.9%
- Current value
- $675.86
- Potential payout
- $683.38
- Potential profit
- $7.52
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $6.17
Yes position
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 55.5%
- Current value
- $370.31
- Potential payout
- $667.22
- Potential profit
- $296.91
- Multiplier
- 1.80x
- User PnL
- -$90.07
No position
Will Google Gemini score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 93%
- Current value
- $389.48
- Potential payout
- $418.79
- Potential profit
- $29.32
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $57.53
Yes position
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 78.5%
- Current value
- $314
- Potential payout
- $400
- Potential profit
- $86
- Multiplier
- 1.27x
- User PnL
- $48
No position
Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 71.5%
- Current value
- $285.98
- Potential payout
- $399.97
- Potential profit
- $113.99
- Multiplier
- 1.40x
- User PnL
- $57.4
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 55.5%
- Current value
- $111
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $89
- Multiplier
- 1.80x
- User PnL
- $29.15
No position
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 75.5%
- Current value
- $95.19
- Potential payout
- $126.08
- Potential profit
- $30.89
- Multiplier
- 1.32x
- User PnL
- $23.33
No position
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.1%
- Current value
- $114.12
- Potential payout
- $120
- Potential profit
- $5.88
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $2.52
No position
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.1%
- Current value
- $95.96
- Potential payout
- $104.19
- Potential profit
- $8.23
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $2.71
No position
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.5%
- Current value
- $83.5
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $16.5
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- $8.5
No position
Will Google Gemini score at least 60% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.1%
- Current value
- $95.05
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $4.95
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $9.05
No position
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.5%
- Current value
- $19.01
- Potential payout
- $21.47
- Potential profit
- $2.47
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- $2.6
No position
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.2%
- Current value
- $14.52
- Potential payout
- $14.93
- Potential profit
- $0.42
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $2.66
No position
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 47.5%
- Current value
- $3.8
- Potential payout
- $8
- Potential profit
- $4.2
- Multiplier
- 2.11x
- User PnL
- -$0.76
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.72K
No position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.48K
No position
Will the government shutdown end November 12?
Ends Nov 21, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.44K
No position
Will iPhone 17 cost more than iPhone 16?
Ends Sep 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $880.23
No position
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $868.21
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $764.26
No position
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $669.16
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $665.56
Yes position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $638.99
Yes position
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $592.04
No position
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $585.26
Yes position
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $548.95
No position
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $535.25
No position
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $508.19
Yes position
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 13?
Ends Dec 13, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $484.72
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $418
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $401.85
Yes position
Israel strikes Gaza by October 17?
Ends Oct 17, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $379.89
No position
GPT ads by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $359.89
No position
NATO x Russia military clash in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $317.01
No position
US forces in Venezuela by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $298.05
No position
Russian strike on Poland by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $292.86
Yes position
Will To Lam be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Communist Party?
Ends Jan 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $290.45
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $288.39
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?No 99.1% 1,000 shares
- Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?Yes 69% 667.22 shares
- Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Yes 98% 678.19 shares
- Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?No 64% 365.07 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026?No 90% 2,777.78 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?No 99% 1,540.51 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026?No 95.2% 4,203.81 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 99.8% 4,106.51 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 98.1% 2,000 shares
- US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?Yes 99.8% 2,000 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 98.1% 1,000 shares
- US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?Yes 99.6% 1,000 shares