No position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $28.18K
- Potential payout
- $31.14K
- Potential profit
- $2.96K
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $5.04K
Polymarket Trader
Thukydides
0x6640bd87f6e4b6e8d62457448bd1b3a4711a2202
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $148.24K
- Realized PnL
- $104.27K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $22.42K
- Potential payout
- $22.45K
- Potential profit
- $33.68
- User PnL
- $6.35K
Yes position
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 87%
- Current value
- $17.05K
- Potential payout
- $19.59K
- Potential profit
- $2.55K
- Multiplier
- 1.15x
- User PnL
- $4.49K
No position
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 99.2%
- Current value
- $19.11K
- Potential payout
- $19.27K
- Potential profit
- $163.84
- User PnL
- $1.35K
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 18.5%
- Current value
- $2.89K
- Potential payout
- $15.62K
- Potential profit
- $12.73K
- Multiplier
- 5.41x
- User PnL
- -$1.57K
No position
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.9%
- Current value
- $14.92K
- Potential payout
- $15.4K
- Potential profit
- $485.13
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $108.42
Yes position
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $41.36
- Potential payout
- $13.79K
- Potential profit
- $13.75K
- Multiplier
- 333.33x
- User PnL
- -$3.15K
No position
Iran leadership change by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Current value
- $11.2K
- Potential payout
- $13.25K
- Potential profit
- $2.05K
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $2.37K
Yes position
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 34.5%
- Current value
- $4.23K
- Potential payout
- $12.25K
- Potential profit
- $8.03K
- Multiplier
- 2.90x
- User PnL
- $1.28K
Yes position
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.6%
- Current value
- $10.61K
- Potential payout
- $10.76K
- Potential profit
- $156.09
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $1.77K
Yes position
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $5.26
- Potential payout
- $10.51K
- Potential profit
- $10.51K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$1.46K
Yes position
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $3.58
- Potential payout
- $7.16K
- Potential profit
- $7.15K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$1.67K
Yes position
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 56.5%
- Current value
- $3.96K
- Potential payout
- $7.01K
- Potential profit
- $3.05K
- Multiplier
- 1.77x
- User PnL
- -$185.42
Yes position
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 42.5%
- Current value
- $2.59K
- Potential payout
- $6.1K
- Potential profit
- $3.51K
- Multiplier
- 2.35x
- User PnL
- -$49.49
No position
Iran coup attempt by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.9%
- Current value
- $5.54K
- Potential payout
- $5.61K
- Potential profit
- $64.46
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $886.11
Yes position
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 24.6%
- Current value
- $981.99
- Potential payout
- $4K
- Potential profit
- $3.02K
- Multiplier
- 4.07x
- User PnL
- -$545.97
Yes position
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $1.94
- Potential payout
- $3.87K
- Potential profit
- $3.87K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$610.8
Yes position
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?
Ends Sep 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 51.5%
- Current value
- $1.55K
- Potential payout
- $3K
- Potential profit
- $1.46K
- Multiplier
- 1.94x
- User PnL
- $356.75
Yes position
Will Maria Deery win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $1.5
- Potential payout
- $3K
- Potential profit
- $3K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$89.41
Yes position
Will Simon Finkelstein win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $1.5
- Potential payout
- $3K
- Potential profit
- $3K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$89.41
Yes position
Will James Thomas Bryer win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $1.5
- Potential payout
- $3K
- Potential profit
- $3K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$89.41
Yes position
Will John Skipworth win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $1.5
- Potential payout
- $3K
- Potential profit
- $3K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$89.41
No position
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 65.4%
- Current value
- $1.63K
- Potential payout
- $2.49K
- Potential profit
- $863.52
- Multiplier
- 1.53x
- User PnL
- $19.67
Yes position
Starmer out by October 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 72.5%
- Current value
- $1.34K
- Potential payout
- $1.85K
- Potential profit
- $509.23
- Multiplier
- 1.38x
- User PnL
- $46.29
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.6K
No position
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.49K
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.19K
No position
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?
Ends May 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.75K
Yes position
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m?
Ends Dec 22, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.54K
Yes position
Will Superman be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.16K
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.15K
No position
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.89K
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $4.51K
No position
Will Luís Marques Mendes qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
Ends Jan 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.26K
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.02K
Yes position
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
Ends Nov 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.95K
Yes position
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?
Ends May 18, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.8K
No position
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.2%
- User PnL
- $3.68K
Yes position
Will Park Wan-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial Election?
Ends Jun 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.67K
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.5%
- User PnL
- $3.66K
No position
Will The Greens win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?
Ends Mar 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.4K
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.38K
Yes position
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.34K
Yes position
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.28K
Yes position
Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.02K
No position
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.99K
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.84K
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- User PnL
- $2.72K
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Starmer out by October 31, 2026?Yes 70% 1,851.74 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes 99.9% 4,799.97 shares
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Yes 30% 3,086.41 shares
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Yes 24% 4,767.94 shares
- Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election?No 96.1% 100 shares
- Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election?No 96.2% 11,638.73 shares
- Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?No 99.5% 10,441.46 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 98.9% 10,000 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 93.7% 999.99 shares
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Yes 20% 4,398.08 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes 55% 2,000 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes 25.9% 11,081.97 shares