ruslanbes

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $12.36
Potential payout: $2.06K
Potential profit: $2.05K
Multiplier: 166.67x
User PnL: -$44.13

Yes position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 11.8%
Current value: $235
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $1.77K
Multiplier: 8.51x
User PnL: $57.2

Yes position

Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Implied probability: 1%
Current value: $15.25
Potential payout: $1.6K
Potential profit: $1.59K
Multiplier: 105.26x
User PnL: -$4.01

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 98.1%
Current value: $980.5
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $19.5
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $50.5

Yes position

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $54.5
Potential payout: $999.98
Potential profit: $945.48
Multiplier: 18.35x
User PnL: $3.5

Yes position

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December?

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $100
Potential payout: $800
Potential profit: $700
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: -$104

Yes position

Iran leadership change by December 31?

Implied probability: 15.5%
Current value: $117.94
Potential payout: $760.9
Potential profit: $642.96
Multiplier: 6.45x
User PnL: -$178.29

Yes position

Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Ends Oct 10, 2026

Implied probability: 10.4%
Current value: $72.45
Potential payout: $699.99
Potential profit: $627.54
Multiplier: 9.66x
User PnL: $54.25

Yes position

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,800 (LOW) in December?

Implied probability: 20.5%
Current value: $143.09
Potential payout: $698.01
Potential profit: $554.92
Multiplier: 4.88x
User PnL: -$115.31

Yes position

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $42.5
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $457.5
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$7.5

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 3.2%
Current value: $15.75
Potential payout: $499.99
Potential profit: $484.24
Multiplier: 31.75x
User PnL: -$19.25

Yes position

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $4,500 (LOW) in December?

Implied probability: 7%
Current value: $31.5
Potential payout: $449.99
Potential profit: $418.49
Multiplier: 14.29x
User PnL: -$17

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 55.5%
Current value: $222
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $178
Multiplier: 1.80x
User PnL: $32

Yes position

Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Implied probability: 5.6%
Current value: $22.2
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $377.8
Multiplier: 18.02x
User PnL: $12.2

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 13.7%
Current value: $54.6
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $345.4
Multiplier: 7.33x
User PnL: -$7.4

Yes position

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June?

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $2.2
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $397.8
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: -$97.8

No position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Implied probability: 29%
Current value: $115.94
Potential payout: $399.79
Potential profit: $283.85
Multiplier: 3.45x
User PnL: -$7.65

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 69.5%
Current value: $220.76
Potential payout: $317.69
Potential profit: $96.93
Multiplier: 1.44x
User PnL: $69.69

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $37.5
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $262.5
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: -$37.5

Yes position

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December?

Implied probability: 31.3%
Current value: $93.75
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $206.25
Multiplier: 3.20x
User PnL: -$2.25

Yes position

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 22.3%
Current value: $56.95
Potential payout: $255.96
Potential profit: $199.01
Multiplier: 4.49x
User PnL: $5.76

Yes position

Will April be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 14.5%
Current value: $30.84
Potential payout: $212.68
Potential profit: $181.84
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: $15.95

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 5.2%
Current value: $10.3
Potential payout: $200.01
Potential profit: $189.71
Multiplier: 19.42x
User PnL: -$13.7

No position

Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 43.5%
Current value: $87
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $113
Multiplier: 2.30x
User PnL: -$3

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $498

No position

Masoud Pezeshkian out by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $420

No position

Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.1%
User PnL: $376.85

Yes position

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

Ends Oct 31, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $299.22

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $273

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by December 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $248

Yes position

Will Denmark be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $230

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $202.38

No position

Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $182.51

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $172

No position

US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $166

No position

Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?

Ends Apr 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $157.51

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $155.61

No position

Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?

Implied probability: 81%
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: $149.66

No position

Will Portugal advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?

Ends May 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $133.99

Yes position

Will Malta advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?

Ends May 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $133.19

No position

Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March?

Ends Apr 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $132.4

Yes position

Will Ukraine be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $130.99

$4000 position

Will $ETH hit $2000 or $4000 first?

Ends Dec 31, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $126.06

No position

Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $123.87

Yes position

US government shutdown Saturday?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $123

No position

Will Armenia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?

Ends May 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $116.97

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?