Yes position
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 80.5%
- Current value
- $1.53K
- Potential payout
- $1.9K
- Potential profit
- $369.58
- Multiplier
- 1.24x
- User PnL
- -$68.37
Polymarket Trader
QuantCat
0x66c62566753c2aac6814e77f067ef3f1400cb9f8
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $4.18K
- Realized PnL
- $9.58K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.23K
- Potential profit
- $1.23K
- User PnL
- -$144.25
No position
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15?
Ends May 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.18K
- Potential profit
- $1.18K
- User PnL
- -$4.32
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.02K
- Potential profit
- $1.02K
- User PnL
- -$156.03
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $789.54
- Potential profit
- $789.54
- User PnL
- -$372.07
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $748.17
- Potential profit
- $748.17
- User PnL
- -$165.9
No position
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $688.5
- Potential payout
- $690.23
- Potential profit
- $1.73
- User PnL
- $26.29
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $686.21
- Potential payout
- $687.93
- Potential profit
- $1.72
- User PnL
- $61.4
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $542.61
- Potential payout
- $627.3
- Potential profit
- $84.69
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $71.71
Yes position
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 3.2%
- Current value
- $11.54
- Potential payout
- $360.76
- Potential profit
- $349.22
- Multiplier
- 31.25x
- User PnL
- -$2.84
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 16.4%
- Current value
- $50.41
- Potential payout
- $308.34
- Potential profit
- $257.93
- Multiplier
- 6.12x
- User PnL
- -$49.53
Yes position
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.1%
- Current value
- $207.23
- Potential payout
- $209.22
- Potential profit
- $1.99
- User PnL
- $69.15
Yes position
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.3%
- Current value
- $10.5
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $189.5
- Multiplier
- 19.05x
- User PnL
- -$0.7
No position
Netanyahu out by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- Current value
- $188.19
- Potential payout
- $188.95
- Potential profit
- $0.76
- User PnL
- $8.06
Yes position
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.08
- Potential payout
- $168.66
- Potential profit
- $168.58
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$59.52
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $152.87
- Potential profit
- $152.87
- User PnL
- -$1.53
Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Current value
- $18.52
- Potential payout
- $137.16
- Potential profit
- $118.64
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- -$22.24
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $128.74
- Potential profit
- $128.74
- User PnL
- -$12.66
Yes position
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.5%
- Current value
- $14.45
- Potential payout
- $125.62
- Potential profit
- $111.17
- Multiplier
- 8.70x
- User PnL
- -$32.56
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- Current value
- $99.65
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $0.35
- User PnL
- $15.15
Yes position
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 61.5%
- Current value
- $49.89
- Potential payout
- $81.13
- Potential profit
- $31.24
- Multiplier
- 1.63x
- User PnL
- -$7.71
No position
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $74.43
- Potential payout
- $74.54
- Potential profit
- $0.11
- User PnL
- $1.52
Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 15.1%
- Current value
- $10.64
- Potential payout
- $70.7
- Potential profit
- $60.06
- Multiplier
- 6.64x
- User PnL
- -$0.67
Yes position
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 4%
- Current value
- $2.78
- Potential payout
- $70.39
- Potential profit
- $67.61
- Multiplier
- 25.32x
- User PnL
- $0.18
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $849.22
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $758.76
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $591.94
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET
Ends Mar 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $537.05
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET
Ends Mar 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $433.42
Up position
Ethereum Up or Down - January 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET
Ends Jan 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $415.95
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET
Ends Mar 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $401.4
Up position
Ethereum Up or Down - January 11, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET
Ends Jan 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $378.8
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET
Ends Jan 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $360.07
Yes position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $357.97
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET
Ends Mar 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $341.08
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET
Ends Jan 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $335.76
Down position
Ethereum Up or Down - January 21, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET
Ends Jan 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $334.39
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET
Ends Feb 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $326.99
Down position
Ethereum Up or Down - January 21, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET
Ends Jan 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $323.72
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $323.3
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET
Ends Jan 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $321.11
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET
Ends Mar 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $318.04
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET
Ends Jan 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $316
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET
Ends Mar 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $315.78
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $313.24
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET
Ends Mar 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $311.97
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET
Ends Jan 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $311.13
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET
Ends Mar 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $303.16
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 91.7% 162.45 shares
- Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 5.6% 200 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Yes 22% 100 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?Yes 9% 60 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes 36% 80 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Yes 12% 40 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Yes 12% 444.44 shares
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?No 97.6% 80 shares
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?No 97.7% 177.31 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Yes 15% 100 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?Yes 41% 0.89 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?Yes 41% 10 shares