Yes position
Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 71%
- Current value
- $5.34K
- Potential payout
- $7.52K
- Potential profit
- $2.18K
- Multiplier
- 1.41x
- User PnL
- $1.57K
Polymarket Trader
LieutenantMiloMinderbinder
0x66d609dbda9df641eff684190a01182f6de450c7
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $13.01K
- Realized PnL
- $10.73K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 16
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Current value
- $4.28K
- Potential payout
- $5K
- Potential profit
- $725
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- $1.78K
Yes position
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 14.5%
- Current value
- $725
- Potential payout
- $5K
- Potential profit
- $4.28K
- Multiplier
- 6.90x
- User PnL
- -$1.78K
No position
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 61%
- Current value
- $1.59K
- Potential payout
- $2.6K
- Potential profit
- $1.01K
- Multiplier
- 1.64x
- User PnL
- -$63.99
Yes position
Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 20%
- Current value
- $355.27
- Potential payout
- $1.78K
- Potential profit
- $1.42K
- Multiplier
- 5.00x
- User PnL
- $98.29
Yes position
Will Otzma Yehudit win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Ends Oct 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.6%
- Current value
- $7.91
- Potential payout
- $1.32K
- Potential profit
- $1.31K
- Multiplier
- 166.67x
- User PnL
- $3.15
Yes position
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 37.6%
- Current value
- $369.24
- Potential payout
- $982.02
- Potential profit
- $612.78
- Multiplier
- 2.66x
- User PnL
- -$4.91
Yes position
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 18 - 24?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $717.62
- Potential profit
- $717.62
- User PnL
- -$11.64
Yes position
Will Jon Stewart announce a Presidential run before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.3%
- Current value
- $16.58
- Potential payout
- $382.07
- Potential profit
- $365.48
- Multiplier
- 23.04x
- User PnL
- $2.83
No position
Will Qatar recognize Israel by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Current value
- $241.59
- Potential payout
- $269.93
- Potential profit
- $28.34
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- -$1.15
No position
Will Afghanistan recognize Israel by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $92.5
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $7.5
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- -$0.5
Yes position
Will there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 18 - 24?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $64.52
- Potential profit
- $64.52
- User PnL
- -$8.06
Yes position
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 18 - 24?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $63.38
- Potential profit
- $63.38
- User PnL
- -$7.92
Yes position
Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 18 - 24?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $55.66
- Potential profit
- $55.66
- User PnL
- -$6.96
Yes position
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 18 - 24?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $26.86
- Potential profit
- $26.86
- User PnL
- -$3.84
Yes position
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 18 - 24?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $9.55
- Potential profit
- $9.55
- User PnL
- -$1.36
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- $2.09K
No position
Will Oman join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91%
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $1.84K
Yes position
Will Oman join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9%
- Multiplier
- 11.11x
- User PnL
- $1.71K
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.23K
No position
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by May 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $405.27
Yes position
Natural Disaster in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 22.5%
- Multiplier
- 4.44x
- User PnL
- $389.02
Yes position
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 7.2%
- Multiplier
- 13.99x
- User PnL
- $356.68
Yes position
Will the Brown University shooter not be arrested in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $332.3
Yes position
Will Oprah Winfrey announce a Presidential run before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.5%
- Multiplier
- 13.33x
- User PnL
- $299.19
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $248
Yes position
US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $222.57
Yes position
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $178.67
Yes position
Will Qatar recognize Israel by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.5%
- Multiplier
- 9.52x
- User PnL
- $172.48
No position
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 18 - 24?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $157.83
No position
Netanyahu out before April?
Ends Mar 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $131.29
Yes position
Israel parliament dissolves by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $129.55
No position
Israel parliament dissolved in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $125.47
Yes position
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 26, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $123.65
Yes position
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before April?
Ends Mar 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $108.22
Yes position
Will Netanyahu be pardoned in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $102.85
Yes position
Megaquake by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $102.61
Yes position
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 9.7%
- Multiplier
- 10.36x
- User PnL
- $94.48
Yes position
Will Israel strike 2 countries in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $93.94
Yes position
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.3%
- Multiplier
- 30.77x
- User PnL
- $91.99
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Yes 20.1% 30 shares
- Will Likud win 35 or more seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?No 87% 0.3 shares
- Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Yes 18.1% 30 shares
- Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No 97.7% 4.12 shares
- Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 Week of June 15 2026?No 90.1% 150 shares
- Will Jon Stewart announce a Presidential run before 2027?Yes 3.6% 382.06 shares
- Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June?Yes 17% 31.25 shares
- Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June?Yes 14% 0.68 shares
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?No 90.1% 955.86 shares
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No 66% 21.74 shares
- Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes 13.5% 1,823.34 shares
- Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes 11% 200 shares