Polymarket Trader

agron-neon

0x66dd20fb1b7d3a314a54a3d4df7fa2fc77f9bc2a

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $292.71
Realized PnL: -$4.12
Win rate: 60.9%
Open positions: 9
Closed positions: 23
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 82.5%
Current value: $70.88
Potential payout: $85.92
Potential profit: $15.04
Multiplier: 1.21x
User PnL: -$4.12

Yes position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jul 29, 2026

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $59.59
Potential payout: $69.7
Potential profit: $10.11
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $4.59

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $52.62
Potential payout: $58.14
Potential profit: $5.52
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $2.62

Yes position

Will Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q2 revenue (USD) be above $39B?

Ends Jul 17, 2026

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $40.23
Potential payout: $46.51
Potential profit: $6.28
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $0.23

Yes position

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 77.6%
Current value: $29.98
Potential payout: $38.66
Potential profit: $8.68
Multiplier: 1.29x
User PnL: -$0.02

Yes position

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on July 10?

Ends Jul 10, 2026

Implied probability: 54.5%
Current value: $19.12
Potential payout: $35.09
Potential profit: $15.96
Multiplier: 1.83x
User PnL: -$0.88

No position

Will Nirav Shah be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?

Ends Jul 27, 2026

Implied probability: 95.2%
Current value: $10.69
Potential payout: $11.24
Potential profit: $0.54
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $0.69

No position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 83.5%
Current value: $4.69
Potential payout: $5.62
Potential profit: $0.93
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: -$0.31

No position

Iran full airspace closure by July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 89.9%
Current value: $4.9
Potential payout: $5.46
Potential profit: $0.55
Multiplier: 1.11x
User PnL: -$0.1

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Up position

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 9?

Ends Jul 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.07

Down position

SPY (SPY) Up or Down on July 8?

Ends Jul 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.58

Down position

Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on July 8?

Ends Jul 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.49

Down position

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 8?

Ends Jul 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.33

Down position

Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on July 8?

Ends Jul 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.81

Down position

Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on July 8?

Ends Jul 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.55

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?

Ends Jul 17, 2026

Implied probability: 89.5%
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $0.51

Down position

Meta (META) Up or Down on July 8?

Ends Jul 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.43

Down position

SPY (SPY) Up or Down on July 7?

Ends Jul 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.26

Down position

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 7?

Ends Jul 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.26

No position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on July 7?

Ends Jul 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.16

Yes position

Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 63.5%
Multiplier: 1.57x
User PnL: $0.08

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 95.5%
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $0.05

No position

Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 76.5%
Multiplier: 1.31x
User PnL: $0

No position

Trump out as President by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 99.4%
User PnL: -$0.01

No position

AI bubble burst in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 84.8%
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: -$0.02

No position

Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 97.6%
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: -$0.03

No position

Will GameStop acquire eBay?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 87.5%
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: -$0.06

No position

Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?

Ends Jun 30, 2027

Implied probability: 74.5%
Multiplier: 1.34x
User PnL: -$0.13

No position

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?

Ends Jul 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$2.53

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?

Ends Jul 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$3.32

Up position

NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on July 9?

Ends Jul 9, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$4.08

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?

Ends Jul 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$9.55

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on July 10?

Yes 57% 35.09 shares
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Yes 77.6% 38.66 shares
Will Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q2 revenue (USD) be above $39B?

Yes 86% 46.51 shares
Will GameStop acquire eBay?

No 87% 5.68 shares
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?

No 86% 6.41 shares
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 9?

Up 94% 10 shares
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on July 9?

Up 11% 8.33 shares
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 9?

Up 87% 57.47 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

No 95% 5.31 shares
Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader in 2026?

No 82% 18.29 shares
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?

Yes 86% 58.14 shares
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?

Yes 79% 63.29 shares