No position
Trump renames Department of Defense by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.1K
- Potential profit
- $3.1K
- User PnL
- -$577.16
Polymarket Trader
ManBa
0x66f3df05e199937340e7f8ae5749eefaaeaf3dad
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $3.11K
- Realized PnL
- $7.2K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 20
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $2.59K
- Potential payout
- $2.59K
- Potential profit
- $1.29
- User PnL
- $45.32
No position
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 62%
- Current value
- $278.76
- Potential payout
- $449.62
- Potential profit
- $170.85
- Multiplier
- 1.61x
- User PnL
- $15.04
Yes position
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 18–25?
Ends Jul 25, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $344.58
- Potential profit
- $344.58
- User PnL
- -$124.05
Yes position
Will HRPP win the most seats in the 2025 Samoa Legislative Assembly election?
Ends Aug 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $323
- Potential profit
- $323
- User PnL
- -$312.02
Yes position
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 38%
- Current value
- $105.69
- Potential payout
- $278.14
- Potential profit
- $172.45
- Multiplier
- 2.63x
- User PnL
- -$41.72
Yes position
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 18–25?
Ends Jul 25, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $200
- User PnL
- -$13.67
Yes position
Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 18–25?
Ends Jul 25, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $200
- User PnL
- -$13.67
Yes position
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 18–25?
Ends Jul 25, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $200
- User PnL
- -$13.67
Yes position
Will Elon tweet 90–104 times July 18–25?
Ends Jul 25, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $200
- User PnL
- -$13.67
Yes position
Will Elon tweet less than 90 times July 18–25?
Ends Jul 25, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $200
- User PnL
- -$13.67
Yes position
Will Elon tweet 105–119 times July 18–25?
Ends Jul 25, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $200
- User PnL
- -$13.67
Yes position
Will Elon tweet 255 or more times July 18–25?
Ends Jul 25, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $200
- User PnL
- -$13.67
Yes position
Will Elon tweet 135–149 times July 18–25?
Ends Jul 25, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $200
- User PnL
- -$13.67
Yes position
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- Current value
- $132.87
- Potential payout
- $133.74
- Potential profit
- $0.87
- User PnL
- $0.87
Yes position
X Money launch in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $110.2
- Potential profit
- $110.2
- User PnL
- -$79.34
Yes position
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.6%
- Current value
- $6.55
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $93.45
- Multiplier
- 15.27x
- User PnL
- -$0.95
Yes position
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$11.3
Yes position
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $32.47
- Potential profit
- $32.47
- User PnL
- -$15
No position
Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $24.28
- Potential profit
- $24.28
- User PnL
- -$14.08
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on April 29?
Ends Apr 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.42K
No position
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 launch before March?
Ends Feb 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $967.19
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $838.64
No position
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 9 Superheavy?
Ends Apr 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $772.03
No position
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 Superheavy booster?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $472.87
No position
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $262.57
No position
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $214.43
No position
Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on February 19?
Ends Feb 19, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $205
Yes position
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $202.27
No position
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in the next Canadian election?
Ends Apr 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $168.7
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in London be between 45-46°F on February 19?
Ends Feb 19, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $167.14
No position
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 Superheavy explode?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $151.11
No position
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $139.94
No position
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $133.6
Yes position
Will Union win the most seats in the next German election?
Ends Feb 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $132.63
No position
Will Elon Musk create a new political party by July 4?
Ends Jul 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $127.66
No position
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 9 launch by May 20?
Ends Apr 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $119.14
Yes position
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $112.19
Yes position
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 18–25?
Ends Jul 25, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $110.38
No position
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by March 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $105.01
No position
Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on February 22?
Ends Feb 22, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $102.2
Yes position
Will Labour win the most seats in the next Australian parliamentary election?
Ends May 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $100
No position
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 9 launch by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $96.54
Yes position
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $85.27
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31?No 54.1% 102.98 shares
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31?Yes 53% 278.14 shares
- Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%?Yes 98.7% 133.74 shares
- Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?Yes 47% 284.24 shares
- Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%?No 2% 94.23 shares
- Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%?No 6.6% 94.23 shares
- Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?Yes 43% 15 shares
- Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Yes 98.2% 1,589.51 shares
- Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Yes 98.2% 1,000 shares
- Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 7.5% 100 shares
- Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?No 83% 20.43 shares
- Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?No 77.8% 3,762.29 shares