Yes position
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 53%
- Current value
- $77.09
- Potential payout
- $145.45
- Potential profit
- $68.36
- Multiplier
- 1.89x
- User PnL
- -$2.91
Polymarket Trader
isauroai
0x6765f16dd104696285687fe9105a8ac9a8866f90
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $342.73
- Realized PnL
- $163.7
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 16
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $138.79
- Potential profit
- $138.79
- User PnL
- -$87.44
No position
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
Ends Sep 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 79.3%
- Current value
- $70.58
- Potential payout
- $89.05
- Potential profit
- $18.48
- Multiplier
- 1.26x
- User PnL
- $3.62
No position
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 22.6%
- Current value
- $19.59
- Potential payout
- $86.89
- Potential profit
- $67.3
- Multiplier
- 4.43x
- User PnL
- -$10.3
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $85.71
- Potential profit
- $85.71
- User PnL
- -$30
Yes position
Fed rate hike in 2026?
Ends Dec 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 60%
- Current value
- $47.63
- Potential payout
- $79.39
- Potential profit
- $31.76
- Multiplier
- 1.67x
- User PnL
- $19.44
No position
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $76.92
- Potential profit
- $76.92
- User PnL
- -$30
No position
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $72.47
- Potential profit
- $72.47
- User PnL
- -$50.01
Yes position
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 61.5%
- Current value
- $40.71
- Potential payout
- $66.19
- Potential profit
- $25.48
- Multiplier
- 1.63x
- User PnL
- $12.91
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $58.82
- Potential profit
- $58.82
- User PnL
- -$30
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 58.5%
- Current value
- $33.75
- Potential payout
- $57.69
- Potential profit
- $23.94
- Multiplier
- 1.71x
- User PnL
- $3.75
No position
Will Trump visit China by May 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $44.65
- Potential profit
- $44.65
- User PnL
- -$16.52
No position
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 22%
- Current value
- $7.12
- Potential payout
- $32.36
- Potential profit
- $25.24
- Multiplier
- 4.55x
- User PnL
- -$2.88
No position
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 56.5%
- Current value
- $16.14
- Potential payout
- $28.57
- Potential profit
- $12.43
- Multiplier
- 1.77x
- User PnL
- $0.14
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 77.5%
- Current value
- $22.13
- Potential payout
- $28.55
- Potential profit
- $6.42
- Multiplier
- 1.29x
- User PnL
- $8.14
No position
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?
Ends Sep 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 60%
- Current value
- $7.99
- Potential payout
- $13.31
- Potential profit
- $5.33
- Multiplier
- 1.67x
- User PnL
- $1.6
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - April 19?
Ends Apr 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $47.95
No position
Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.32
No position
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.91
No position
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.28
Yes position
Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.97
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.89
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.89
Yes position
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.46
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.55
No position
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.48
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.95
No position
Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 85%
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $4.05
No position
Will Israel strike ≤1 countries in February 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.7
No position
Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- $2.33
No position
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 48.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.06x
- User PnL
- $1.95
No position
Will two people dissent the March Fed decision?
Ends Mar 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.91
Yes position
Will Trump say "Mass Destruction" this week? (March 1)
Ends Mar 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.33
No position
Will "Marty Supreme" win exactly 1 award at the Oscars?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.3
No position
Epstein "I beat Bush" Email unredacted by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.17
Over position
KRC Genk vs. GNK Dinamo Zagreb: O/U 1.5
Ends Feb 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.81
Yes position
Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.57
No position
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 82.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.21x
- User PnL
- $0.41
No position
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.26
No position
Will OpenAI acquire Pinterest in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.1%
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $0.25
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?No 48% 13.31 shares
- 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseNo 56% 28.57 shares
- Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?No 75.5% 9.21 shares
- Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026?No 39% 76.92 shares
- Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?No 30.9% 32.36 shares
- US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?No 35% 85.71 shares
- Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?No 75.3% 39.84 shares
- Fed rate hike in 2026?Yes 35.5% 79.39 shares
- Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes 42% 66.19 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?No 49% 28.55 shares
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?No 52% 57.69 shares
- US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?No 51% 58.82 shares