Yes position
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 24.5%
- Current value
- $46.55
- Potential payout
- $190
- Potential profit
- $143.45
- Multiplier
- 4.08x
- User PnL
- $2.85
Polymarket Trader
vldck
0x685c3d55709e8d739989e69d2ed222e6f774097b
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $97.75
- Realized PnL
- $362.39
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 5
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 58.5%
- Current value
- $46.8
- Potential payout
- $80
- Potential profit
- $33.2
- Multiplier
- 1.71x
- User PnL
- $8.4
No position
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.5%
- Current value
- $4.4
- Potential payout
- $80
- Potential profit
- $75.6
- Multiplier
- 18.18x
- User PnL
- -$38.8
Yes position
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?
Ends Apr 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $65.8
- Potential profit
- $65.8
- User PnL
- -$35
No position
Will Tisza win 130+ seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $49.48
- Potential profit
- $49.48
- User PnL
- -$35.7
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 64.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.55x
- User PnL
- $79.5
Yes position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $23.66
No position
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.1
No position
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.09
No position
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $15.87
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.1%
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $14.72
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $14.48
No position
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $13.49
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.33
Yes position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $12.63
No position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.25
Yes position
Will Trump visit China by May 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.44
No position
GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.5
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.44
Yes position
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.25
No position
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $9.8
No position
Will Trump visit China by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.78
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.4
No position
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.31
No position
Gemini 3.5 released by March 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.87
No position
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $7.25
Yes position
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.22
No position
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.4%
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $7.02
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?No 48% 80 shares
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Yes 15% 2.17 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?No 82% 150 shares
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Yes 35% 106.47 shares
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Yes 36.8% 108.65 shares
- Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?No 55.4% 59.09 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?No 47% 59.52 shares
- Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?No 66% 59.09 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?No 42% 59.52 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?No 51% 47.61 shares
- US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026?No 84% 39 shares
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?No 83% 79.36 shares