0x688B15F0B28ED993dba8EE14F3485ddbB55349F5-1774551591274

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $2.51
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $999.5
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$0.5

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $1.5
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $998.5
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$0.5

Yes position

Will Sadegh Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $2.5
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $997.5
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$0.5

Yes position

Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $4.61
Potential payout: $837.28
Potential profit: $832.68
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: $1.06

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $781.35
Potential profit: $781.35
User PnL: -$0.78

Yes position

Will Hassan Khomeini be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $5.03
Potential payout: $718.01
Potential profit: $712.98
Multiplier: 142.86x
User PnL: $2.67

Yes position

Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Implied probability: 1.1%
Current value: $7.19
Potential payout: $654
Potential profit: $646.81
Multiplier: 90.91x
User PnL: $2.36

Yes position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Ends Sep 16, 2026

Implied probability: 1.2%
Current value: $6.61
Potential payout: $574.99
Potential profit: $568.38
Multiplier: 86.96x
User PnL: $0.62

Yes position

Will Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.75
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $499.25
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$0.25

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country by September 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $1.19
Potential payout: $339.67
Potential profit: $338.48
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: $0.49

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $232.84
Potential profit: $232.84
User PnL: -$0.23

Yes position

Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $1.13
Potential payout: $151.32
Potential profit: $150.18
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: $0.38

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $142.86
Potential profit: $142.86
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $11.63
Potential payout: $136.86
Potential profit: $125.23
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$1.68

Yes position

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $10.65
Potential payout: $125.3
Potential profit: $114.65
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$1.84

Yes position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

Ends Oct 28, 2026

Implied probability: 16%
Current value: $16.96
Potential payout: $106.01
Potential profit: $89.05
Multiplier: 6.25x
User PnL: -$2.15

Yes position

Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Implied probability: 2.9%
Current value: $2.93
Potential payout: $100.9
Potential profit: $97.98
Multiplier: 34.48x
User PnL: $0.44

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100.01
Potential profit: $100.01
User PnL: -$0.1

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $10.79
Potential payout: $86.34
Potential profit: $75.55
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: -$1.32

Yes position

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31?

Ends Aug 31, 2026

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $4.7
Potential payout: $85.4
Potential profit: $80.7
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$0.61

Yes position

Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026?

Implied probability: 2.5%
Current value: $2.12
Potential payout: $84.9
Potential profit: $82.78
Multiplier: 40.00x
User PnL: $0.56

Yes position

Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 6%
Current value: $4.4
Potential payout: $73.28
Potential profit: $68.88
Multiplier: 16.67x
User PnL: $0.21

Yes position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Ends Sep 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $61.78
Potential profit: $61.78
User PnL: -$1.85

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $10.54

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.24

Yes position

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $9.16

Yes position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $7.68

Yes position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?

Ends Oct 28, 2026

Implied probability: 1.6%
Multiplier: 64.52x
User PnL: $7.34

Yes position

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $7.23

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?

Ends Apr 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $6.62

Yes position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Ends Sep 16, 2026

Implied probability: 38.5%
Multiplier: 2.60x
User PnL: $6.46

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another Middle East/North Africa country by September 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Multiplier: 200.00x
User PnL: $5.5

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the UAE by September 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 1.5%
Multiplier: 68.97x
User PnL: $5.12

Yes position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 1.9%
Multiplier: 52.63x
User PnL: $4.72

Yes position

US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $4.62

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.93

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $3.23

Yes position

Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.9

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.87

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.37

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Saudi Arabia by September 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0.6%
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: $1.96

Yes position

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.74

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country by September 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 1%
Multiplier: 100.00x
User PnL: $1.69

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.6

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.5

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.48

Yes position

Iran leadership change by April 30?