Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $611
- Potential payout
- $698.29
- Potential profit
- $87.29
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $61
Polymarket Trader
aren
0x68b7f99f7eb641104a3bcb3b8aafccdd9ee6c0bc
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $647.58
- Realized PnL
- $3.14K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 7
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.6%
- Current value
- $31.78
- Potential payout
- $572.68
- Potential profit
- $540.9
- Multiplier
- 18.02x
- User PnL
- -$298.22
Yes position
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 1.2%
- Current value
- $4.79
- Potential payout
- $416.67
- Potential profit
- $411.88
- Multiplier
- 86.96x
- User PnL
- -$0.21
No position
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $216.36
- Potential profit
- $216.36
- User PnL
- -$168.76
Yes position
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $204.17
- Potential profit
- $204.17
- User PnL
- -$73.5
Yes position
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $165.37
- Potential profit
- $165.37
- User PnL
- -$50
Yes position
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $104.45
- Potential profit
- $104.45
- User PnL
- -$25
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?
Ends Feb 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $360.41
Yes position
Will Trump lower tariffs on China in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $359.09
No position
Will Remco Evenepoel finish in the top five at the Tour de France 2025?
Ends Jul 27, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $300.47
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $225.29
No position
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion?
Ends Dec 7, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $197.34
Yes position
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in August?
Ends Aug 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $167.07
Yes position
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in September?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $145.07
Yes position
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals?
Ends Jun 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $134.37
Yes position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $124.33
Yes position
Will the SPD win 10-15% of the vote in the German election?
Ends Feb 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $120.64
Yes position
New Pope in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $117.17
No position
Will Benjamin Netanyahu attend presidential inauguration?
Ends Jan 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $111.18
Yes position
US-China trade deal before June?
Ends May 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $98.87
Yes position
Will Trump speak to Friedrich Merz in May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $82.44
Yes position
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $69.31
No position
Will Nancy Pelosi attend presidential inauguration?
Ends Jan 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $64.02
Yes position
Will Trump talk to Emmanuel Macron in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $61.94
No position
Will Putin meet with Trump by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $61.8
Yes position
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in August?
Ends Aug 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $61.16
Yes position
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $57.52
Yes position
Will Florian Lipowitz finish in the top five at the Tour de France 2025?
Ends Jul 27, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $55.85
No position
TikTok sale announced by September 30?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $55.38
No position
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be on the Time 2025 person of the year shortlist?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $54.03
Yes position
Fear & Greed Index says "Greed" on Friday?
Ends May 16, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $51.23
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes 25.2% 572.68 shares
- Will Project Hail Mary get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?Yes 5.2% 232 shares
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?Yes 19.3% 312.5 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Yes 78.8% 698.29 shares
- Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?No 55% 72.11 shares
- Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?No 41.9% 59.67 shares
- Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?Yes 23.9% 417.78 shares
- Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?No 87.4% 228.8 shares
- Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?No 48.5% 100 shares
- Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?No 55.4% 100 shares
- Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?No 57% 508.47 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes 50% 620 shares