soulMY

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $2.6
Potential payout: $1.74K
Potential profit: $1.73K
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$2.6

Yes position

Will Dune: Messiah have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $2.12
Potential payout: $470.43
Potential profit: $468.31
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$3.66

Yes position

Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $1.16
Potential payout: $211
Potential profit: $209.84
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: -$0.11

Yes position

Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Implied probability: 3.3%
Current value: $3.37
Potential payout: $102.2
Potential profit: $98.83
Multiplier: 30.30x
User PnL: -$2.04

Yes position

Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026?

Implied probability: 67.5%
Current value: $41.2
Potential payout: $61.03
Potential profit: $19.83
Multiplier: 1.48x
User PnL: -$4.16

Yes position

Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 280m?

Ends Aug 2, 2026

Implied probability: 1.9%
Current value: $0.56
Potential payout: $30.43
Potential profit: $29.87
Multiplier: 54.05x
User PnL: -$0.01

Yes position

Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 145m?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $29.99
Potential profit: $29.99
User PnL: -$0.39

Yes position

Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 260m and 280m?

Ends Aug 2, 2026

Implied probability: 22.4%
Current value: $6.7
Potential payout: $29.99
Potential profit: $23.29
Multiplier: 4.47x
User PnL: $6.13

Yes position

Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $25
Potential profit: $25
User PnL: -$0.58

Yes position

Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?

Implied probability: 4.6%
Current value: $0.64
Potential payout: $14.02
Potential profit: $13.38
Multiplier: 21.98x
User PnL: $0.5

Yes position

Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.4T and $1.6T at market close on IPO day?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $10
User PnL: -$0.32

Yes position

Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.6T and $1.8T at market close on IPO day?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $10
User PnL: -$0.72

Yes position

Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 52m and 58m?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.01
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $4.99
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$0.19

Yes position

Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.8T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $5
User PnL: -$1.05

Yes position

Will "Disclosure Day" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 22m?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $5
User PnL: -$0.2

Yes position

Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $5
User PnL: -$0.15

Yes position

Will "Disclosure Day" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 22m and 24m?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $5
User PnL: -$0.2

Yes position

Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.5
Potential profit: $2.5
User PnL: -$0.34

Yes position

Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.45
Potential profit: $2.45
User PnL: -$0.54

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $1.09
Potential payout: $1.09
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $0.02

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 98.6%
Current value: $1.02
Potential payout: $1.03
Potential profit: $0.01
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $0.02

Yes position

Will Trump and Putin not meet?

Implied probability: 99.6%
Current value: $1
Potential payout: $1.01
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $0

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?

Implied probability: 73.5%
Multiplier: 1.36x
User PnL: $1

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.51

No position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.24

No position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Implied probability: 86.5%
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $0.18

No position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.9%
User PnL: $0.09

No position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.05

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $70 by end of March?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.03

Yes position

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.03

No position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.02

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.01

Yes position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.01

Yes position

Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.01

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

No position

Xi Jinping out by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.9%
User PnL: $0

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Implied probability: 90.5%
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $160B by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0

No position

Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027?

Implied probability: 93.5%
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Implied probability: 0.6%
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: $0

Up position

SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day?