No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $3.5K
- Potential payout
- $4K
- Potential profit
- $500
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $741.03
Polymarket Trader
n1414
0x68d399617573841413513ba7eec8e793b32582e1
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $7.35K
- Realized PnL
- $10.72K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 7
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.9%
- Current value
- $1.78K
- Potential payout
- $1.8K
- Potential profit
- $20.7
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $308.21
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $898.63
- Potential payout
- $899.98
- Potential profit
- $1.35
- User PnL
- $91.65
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $698.25
- Potential payout
- $700
- Potential profit
- $1.75
- User PnL
- $90.25
No position
Will Donald Trump visit Turkey in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4%
- Current value
- $14.92
- Potential payout
- $377.65
- Potential profit
- $362.73
- Multiplier
- 25.32x
- User PnL
- -$42.39
Yes position
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit?
Ends Jul 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 97%
- Current value
- $366.31
- Potential payout
- $377.64
- Potential profit
- $11.33
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $87.02
Yes position
Will Gabriel Attal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 17, 2027- Implied probability
- 47.5%
- Current value
- $95
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $105
- Multiplier
- 2.11x
- User PnL
- $26.5
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.71K
Yes position
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.48K
No position
Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.08K
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $646.02
No position
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 9, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $590.94
Yes position
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 14, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $588.37
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $516.48
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $495.01
Yes position
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $365.67
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $326.93
Yes position
Will Trump visit China by May 15?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $318.86
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $315.11
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $308.87
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $296.01
Yes position
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $253.32
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $250.22
No position
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $191.88
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $154.67
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $146.9
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $142.93
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $141
Yes position
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $140.3
No position
Will Iran strike Oman by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $128.64
No position
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 10, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $125.51
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit?Yes 74% 377.64 shares
- Will Donald Trump visit Turkey in 2026?No 15.2% 377.65 shares
- Will JP Morgan (JPM) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.55B?Yes 96.7% 48 shares
- Will Loopscale launch a token by December 31, 2026?Yes 23% 0.14 shares
- Ostium FDV above $300M one day after launch?Yes 31% 5 shares
- Ostium FDV above $300M one day after launch?Yes 34% 5 shares
- Will Loopscale launch a token by December 31, 2026?Yes 30% 5 shares
- Will the US federal government take a stake in OpenAI?No 85% 5 shares
- Will JP Morgan (JPM) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.55B?No 3.4% 271.23 shares
- Will Reppo launch a token by December 31, 2026?Yes 15% 36.25 shares
- Will Reppo launch a token by December 31, 2026?Yes 16% 28.75 shares
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?Yes 88% 145 shares