0x09bebe49d696a8a1c5a5952f38ce655aec12be3d

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.11K
Potential profit: $1.11K
User PnL: -$11

Yes position

Will $ETH fall below $1,000 by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2022

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.06K
Potential profit: $1.06K
User PnL: -$45

Yes position

Will the 7-day COVID-19 case average in the USA be above 200,000 again by August 1, 2022?

Ends Aug 8, 2022

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$15

Yes position

Will the Ethereum Merge (EIP-3675) occur by September 1, 2022?

Ends Sep 1, 2022

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $976.51
Potential profit: $976.51
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will US student loan payments resume by Election Day, 2022?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $925.27
Potential profit: $925.27
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Aave have $100m or more of bad debt by November 30?

Ends Nov 30, 2022

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $910.78
Potential profit: $910.78
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Ukraine formally cede Crimea, Luhansk, or Donetsk by May 31, 2022?

Ends May 31, 2022

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $869.71
Potential profit: $869.71
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Hunter Biden be federally indicted by July 31, 2022?

Ends Jul 31, 2022

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $833.13
Potential profit: $833.13
User PnL: -$15

Yes position

Will there be more than 10,000 Monkeypox cases in the USA by August 1, 2022?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $818.65
Potential profit: $818.65
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will more than 2.5 million people travel through a TSA checkpoint on any day before August?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $805.26
Potential profit: $805.26
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will Russia expand its number of federal subjects by July 1, 2022?

Ends Jul 1, 2022

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $598.27
Potential profit: $598.27
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will income taxes rise for the highest tax bracket in 2022?

Ends Dec 31, 2022

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $596.09
Potential profit: $596.09
User PnL: -$11

Yes position

Will Stephen Curry win NBA ’21-’22 MVP?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $551.13
Potential profit: $551.13
User PnL: -$10

Democrats position

538: Will voters prefer Democrats or Republicans on Election Day?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.27
Potential payout: $549.05
Potential profit: $548.78
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$9.73

Yes position

Will US 10-yr treasury bond yield reach 5% by November 8, 2022?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $520.74
Potential profit: $520.74
User PnL: -$11

Yes position

Will the U.S. 7-day COVID-19 Case average be above 75,000 on March 1, 2022?

Ends Mar 8, 2022

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $509.76
Potential profit: $509.76
User PnL: -$50

Yes position

Will the Ethereum Merge (EIP-3675) occur by August 1, 2022?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $492.89
Potential profit: $492.89
User PnL: -$45

Yes position

Will Kevin Durant win NBA ’21-’22 MVP?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $490.44
Potential profit: $490.44
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Armin Laschet be the next chancellor of Germany?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $485.76
Potential profit: $485.76
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will the Ethereum Merge (EIP-3675) occur by July 1, 2022?

Ends Jul 1, 2022

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $478.76
Potential profit: $478.76
User PnL: -$25

No position

Will Gavin Newsom be Governor of California on December 31, 2021?

Ends Dec 31, 2021

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $472.75
Potential profit: $472.75
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will UST (TerraUSD) lose its peg by March 1st?

Ends Mar 1, 2022

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $458.14
Potential profit: $458.14
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Ja Morant win NBA ’21-’22 MVP?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $451.55
Potential profit: $451.55
User PnL: -$10

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will the Fed set interest rates above 1.50% after their scheduled June meeting?

Ends Jun 15, 2022

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $360.84

Yes position

Will Twitter announce a Musk acquisition by June 1, 2022?

Ends Jun 1, 2022

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $329.34

Yes position

Will $ETH be above $1,200 on July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2022

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $268.75

No position

Will Coinbase’s NFT marketplace be live by April 1st, 2022?

Ends Apr 1, 2022

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $230.18

Yes position

Will Celsius announce bankruptcy by July 13?

Ends Jul 13, 2022

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $124.62

Yes position

Will Sequoia Capital's Youtube memo sell for more than 100 ETH?

Ends Dec 7, 2021

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $92.73

Yes position

Will the United States report a record high 7-day COVID-19 case average before January 1, 2022?

Ends Jan 8, 2022

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $72.71

No position

Will more than 2.5 million people travel through a TSA checkpoint on any day on or before December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2022

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.43

Democratic position

Which party will win the U.S. House in the 2022 elections?

Implied probability: 0%
Multiplier: 793924.87x
User PnL: $13.51

No position

Will Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Ends Dec 31, 2023

Implied probability: 0%
Multiplier: 457102.93x
User PnL: $0.26

No position

Will there be more than 5 million Ukrainian refugees by April 30, 2022?

Ends Apr 30, 2022

Implied probability: 0%
Multiplier: 1489237.36x
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will more than 2.5 million people travel through a TSA checkpoint on any day on or before December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2022

Implied probability: 0%
Multiplier: 7486162.62x
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will a picture surface of Kim Kardashian and Pete Davidson kissing before November 30th, 2021?

Ends Nov 30, 2021

Implied probability: 0%
Multiplier: 8622008.22x
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will there be an earthquake of magnitude 4.5 or higher in conterminous U.S. by November 29th?

Ends Nov 29, 2021

Implied probability: 0%
Multiplier: 14644088.46x
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on November 30, 2021?

Ends Nov 30, 2021

Implied probability: 0%
Multiplier: 10863773.94x
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will the U.S. 7-day COVID-19 Case average be below 100,000 by February 15, 2022?

Ends Feb 15, 2022

Implied probability: 0%
Multiplier: 6535901.37x
User PnL: -$10

Canada position

2022 Winter Olympics: Will the USA or Canada get more gold medals?

Ends Feb 20, 2022

Implied probability: 0%
Multiplier: 5217577.01x
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

[From Nate Silver] Will there be a federal mask requirement on US domestic flights on November 8, 2022?

Implied probability: 0%
Multiplier: 1197768.80x
User PnL: -$10

No position

Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be President of Ukraine on April 22, 2022?

Ends Apr 22, 2022

Implied probability: 0%
Multiplier: 2968237.69x
User PnL: -$11

No position

Will the U.S. Senate pass a Reconciliation Bill by August 15?

Ends Aug 15, 2022

Implied probability: 0%
Multiplier: 768686.88x
User PnL: -$15

Yes position

Will USD overtake EUR again by August 1?