mazzaccone

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $977.71
Potential payout: $1.14K
Potential profit: $165.81
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $227.71

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 23%
Current value: $257.39
Potential payout: $1.12K
Potential profit: $864.13
Multiplier: 4.36x
User PnL: $57.39

Yes position

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 10.3%
Current value: $105.67
Potential payout: $1.03K
Potential profit: $925.26
Multiplier: 9.76x
User PnL: $5.67

Yes position

US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $740.04
Potential profit: $740.04
User PnL: -$450

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 11.2%
Current value: $68.83
Potential payout: $617.28
Potential profit: $548.46
Multiplier: 8.97x
User PnL: -$31.17

Yes position

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?

Implied probability: 42.5%
Current value: $213.02
Potential payout: $501.22
Potential profit: $288.2
Multiplier: 2.35x
User PnL: -$86.98

Yes position

Zelenskyy wears a suit and tie during next Trump meeting?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $454.55
Potential profit: $454.55
User PnL: -$50

Yes position

Another US strike on Venezuela by March 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $416.67
Potential profit: $416.67
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $32.69
Potential payout: $384.62
Potential profit: $351.92
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$17.31

Yes position

Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 British Grand Prix?

Ends Jul 12, 2026

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $46.18
Potential payout: $342.08
Potential profit: $295.9
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: -$53.82

Yes position

Will an election be called instead of appointing a Prime Minister?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $339.88
Potential profit: $339.88
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $301.19
Potential profit: $301.19
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-13?

Ends May 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $294.12
Potential profit: $294.12
User PnL: -$50

Yes position

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

Implied probability: 41.5%
Current value: $122.06
Potential payout: $294.12
Potential profit: $172.06
Multiplier: 2.41x
User PnL: -$27.94

Yes position

Another US strike on Venezuela on January 12?

Ends Jan 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $285.71
Potential profit: $285.71
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 30?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $259.26
Potential profit: $259.26
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 7?

Ends Nov 7, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $206.02
Potential profit: $206.02
User PnL: -$200

Yes position

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 21.5%
Current value: $43.48
Potential payout: $202.7
Potential profit: $159.22
Multiplier: 4.66x
User PnL: $13.48

Yes position

Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix?

Ends Jul 5, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$30

Yes position

Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix?

Ends Jul 5, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $191.91
Potential profit: $191.91
User PnL: -$30

Yes position

US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $161.29
Potential profit: $161.29
User PnL: -$50

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $142.86
Potential profit: $142.86
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Trump announces new drug boat strike by January 17, 2026?

Ends Jan 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $115.91
Potential profit: $115.91
User PnL: -$50

Yes position

Will India win?

Ends Nov 21, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $107.53
Potential profit: $107.53
User PnL: -$100

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Maduro out by March 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.95K

Yes position

Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $422.59

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $349.5

Yes position

Maduro out by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $276.92

Yes position

U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $257.14

Yes position

Will Neymar play in the World Cup?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $175.3

Yes position

Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by March 31?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $121.94

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $121.11

Yes position

Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 14?

Ends Nov 14, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $106.33

Yes position

US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $98.51

Yes position

US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $93.94

Yes position

U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $82.59

Yes position

Will Trump say "Palestine" or "Palestinian" during Saudi PM events on November 18?

Ends Nov 18, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $76.25

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Implied probability: 9.5%
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: $63.08

Yes position

Will Trump say "Reconstruction" during Egypt summit?

Ends Oct 13, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $48.37

Yes position

U.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by December 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $37.76

Yes position

Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26.92

Yes position

Will Ferrari finish second in the 2025 Constructors' Championship?

Ends Dec 7, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $23.73

Lakers position

Lakers vs. Pelicans

Ends Nov 15, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.46

Yes position

Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?

Ends Nov 4, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.85

Alcaraz position

ATP World Tour Finals, Final Stage: Carlos Alcaraz vs Felix Auger-Aliassime

Ends Nov 22, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.95

Yes position

Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize?