No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.57
- Potential payout
- $1.14K
- Potential profit
- $1.14K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$581.6
Polymarket Trader
EffectiveDivisor
0x6a1f4e89322c5e9b110644990bdfe15f92432ab4
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $123.31
- Realized PnL
- -$0.27
- Win rate
- 83.3%
- Open positions
- 11
- Closed positions
- 12
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $0.32
- Potential payout
- $211.61
- Potential profit
- $211.3
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$159.92
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $56
- Potential profit
- $56
- User PnL
- -$17.04
No position
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Current value
- $31.92
- Potential payout
- $37.78
- Potential profit
- $5.86
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $2.88
Yes position
Will Starmer say "Defense" during the next PMQ?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 77.5%
- Current value
- $27.13
- Potential payout
- $35
- Potential profit
- $7.88
- Multiplier
- 1.29x
- User PnL
- -$2.87
Yes position
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 84%
- Current value
- $25.33
- Potential payout
- $30.15
- Potential profit
- $4.82
- Multiplier
- 1.19x
- User PnL
- $2.71
No position
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 67%
- Current value
- $14.49
- Potential payout
- $21.62
- Potential profit
- $7.13
- Multiplier
- 1.49x
- User PnL
- -$1.3
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 51.5%
- Current value
- $8.77
- Potential payout
- $17.02
- Potential profit
- $8.25
- Multiplier
- 1.94x
- User PnL
- -$0.09
No position
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 53%
- Current value
- $5.3
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $4.7
- Multiplier
- 1.89x
- User PnL
- -$0.5
Y
Yes position
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 20+ times during the next PMQ?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 86%
- Current value
- $7.51
- Potential payout
- $8.73
- Potential profit
- $1.22
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- -$1.05
Yes position
Will Starmer say "Northern Ireland" during the next PMQ?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 34.5%
- Current value
- $1.99
- Potential payout
- $5.76
- Potential profit
- $3.77
- Multiplier
- 2.90x
- User PnL
- -$0.03
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?
Ends May 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.38
Yes position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.42
No position
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.42
Yes position
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.4
No position
Spain snap election called in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 65%
- Multiplier
- 1.54x
- User PnL
- $0.37
No position
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.31
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.3
No position
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 99.2%
- User PnL
- $0.13
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $0.1
Yes position
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 15.5%
- Multiplier
- 6.45x
- User PnL
- $0.08
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 36.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.74x
- User PnL
- -$1.18
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$3
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 50% 411.82 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 51% 329.44 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 76.7% 50 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 77% 82.26 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 51% 300 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 52% 17 shares
- Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?Yes 75% 15.15 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 59% 10 shares
- Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?No 74% 10.1 shares
- Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?No 74% 10.1 shares
- Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?Yes 25% 8 shares
- Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?Yes 75% 5 shares