avatar12

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10K
Potential profit: $10K
User PnL: -$90

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 23.8%
Current value: $1.31K
Potential payout: $5.53K
Potential profit: $4.22K
Multiplier: 4.21x
User PnL: $513.6

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Implied probability: 13.1%
Current value: $441.21
Potential payout: $3.38K
Potential profit: $2.94K
Multiplier: 7.66x
User PnL: -$238.78

Yes position

Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $21.67
Potential payout: $3.33K
Potential profit: $3.31K
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: $1.67

Yes position

Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.25K
Potential profit: $3.25K
User PnL: -$520

Yes position

Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 1.4%
Current value: $40.5
Potential payout: $3K
Potential profit: $2.96K
Multiplier: 74.07x
User PnL: -$10.5

Yes position

Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 4.3%
Current value: $127.5
Potential payout: $3K
Potential profit: $2.87K
Multiplier: 23.53x
User PnL: -$40.5

Yes position

Will stablecoins hit $400B by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.7K
Potential profit: $2.7K
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 20.7%
Current value: $522.81
Potential payout: $2.53K
Potential profit: $2.01K
Multiplier: 4.84x
User PnL: -$377.19

Yes position

Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Implied probability: 1.1%
Current value: $26.25
Potential payout: $2.5K
Potential profit: $2.47K
Multiplier: 95.24x
User PnL: -$8.75

Yes position

Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 1%
Current value: $19
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $1.98K
Multiplier: 105.26x
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?

Ends Dec 6, 2026

Implied probability: 78%
Current value: $1.56K
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $440
Multiplier: 1.28x
User PnL: $260

Yes position

Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

Ends Dec 6, 2026

Implied probability: 3%
Current value: $52.06
Potential payout: $1.74K
Potential profit: $1.68K
Multiplier: 33.33x
User PnL: $2.06

Yes position

Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.67K
Potential profit: $1.67K
User PnL: -$30

Yes position

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 21.5%
Current value: $310.68
Potential payout: $1.45K
Potential profit: $1.14K
Multiplier: 4.66x
User PnL: $190.68

Yes position

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Implied probability: 19.3%
Current value: $276.14
Potential payout: $1.43K
Potential profit: $1.16K
Multiplier: 5.19x
User PnL: -$135.86

Yes position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 20.5%
Current value: $267.39
Potential payout: $1.3K
Potential profit: $1.04K
Multiplier: 4.88x
User PnL: -$32.61

Yes position

Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $3.15
Potential payout: $1.05K
Potential profit: $1.05K
Multiplier: 333.33x
User PnL: -$646.84

Yes position

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Implied probability: 11.1%
Current value: $110.5
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $889.5
Multiplier: 9.05x
User PnL: $50.5

Yes position

Will Man City win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$90

Yes position

Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

Ends Dec 6, 2026

Implied probability: 17%
Current value: $170
Potential payout: $999.99
Potential profit: $830
Multiplier: 5.88x
User PnL: -$130

Yes position

Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $900.01
Potential profit: $900.01
User PnL: -$21.6

Yes position

Will Daniil Medvedev win Wimbledon 2025?

Ends Jul 13, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $806.96
Potential profit: $806.96
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 1%
Current value: $7.6
Potential payout: $800
Potential profit: $792.4
Multiplier: 105.26x
User PnL: -$12.4

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.16K

Yes position

MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $944.65

Yes position

Maduro out by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $766.49

Yes position

Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League?

Ends May 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $583.7

Yes position

Will Fed cut interest rates 4 times in 2024?

Ends Dec 30, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $338.02

Yes position

Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion?

Ends Dec 7, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $337.65

Yes position

Liverpool wins the Premier League?

Ends May 25, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $238.08

Yes position

US x Venezuela military engagement by January 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $237.18

No position

Trump fires campaign manager?

Ends Nov 4, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $226.32

No position

Confirmed case of monkeypox in US by Aug 31?

Ends Aug 31, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $183.87

Yes position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $182.22

80k position

Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $100k first?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $161.55

Yes position

New Pope in 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $141.28

$4000 position

Will $ETH hit $2000 or $4000 first?

Ends Dec 31, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $138.1

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $132.56

No position

US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $126.85

Yes position

Will the HBO documentary identify someone else as Satoshi?

Ends Oct 15, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $116.7

Yes position

Will Barcelona win La Liga?

Ends May 25, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $94.62

No position

Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?

Ends Apr 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $93.89

No position

Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $86.54

No position

Will Solana reach $275 in November?

Ends Nov 30, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $85.19

No position

Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31?