Polymarket Trader

ReefCaptial

0x6aca85a65b8e22ff18fc993d981cda2e213231f2

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $81.69
Realized PnL: $644.67
Win rate: 91.7%
Open positions: 6
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $980
Potential profit: $980
User PnL: -$70

Yes position

Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $625
Potential profit: $625
User PnL: -$50

Yes position

US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $455.23
Potential profit: $455.23
User PnL: -$152.42

Yes position

Israel military action against Yemen by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 11%
Current value: $44.93
Potential payout: $408.43
Potential profit: $363.51
Multiplier: 9.09x
User PnL: -$5.07

Yes position

Iran closes its airspace by May 8?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $331.75
Potential profit: $331.75
User PnL: -$118

Yes position

Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 27%
Current value: $36.76
Potential payout: $136.14
Potential profit: $99.38
Multiplier: 3.70x
User PnL: -$13.24

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $127.17

Yes position

Will Tyrrell Hatton win the 2026 Masters tournament?

Ends Apr 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $74.94

Yes position

Military action against Iran ends by May 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $66.44

Yes position

Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament?

Ends Apr 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $65.08

Yes position

Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $50

Yes position

Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 8, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $45.02

Yes position

Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $37.73

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $34.21

Yes position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $24.77

Yes position

Military action against Iran ends by June 30, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.31

Yes position

Military action against Iran ends by April 15, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.56

Yes position

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $14.71

Yes position

Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $14.26

Yes position

Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $11.08

Yes position

Iran leadership change by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $10.87

Yes position

Iran leadership change by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $9.68

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $8.14

Yes position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $5.67

No position

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.97

Yes position

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 40.4%
Multiplier: 2.48x
User PnL: $1.6

Yes position

Will Jordan Spieth win the 2026 Masters tournament?

Ends Apr 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.31

Yes position

Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 5, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.13

No position

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

Ends Jun 30, 2027

Implied probability: 92.5%
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: -$2.35

Yes position

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$2.61

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will France vs. Spain end in a draw?

Yes 3.3% 476.19 shares
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Yes 41.6% 64 shares
Israel military action against Yemen by July 31?

Yes 12.2% 408.43 shares
Will France vs. Spain end in a draw?

Yes 10.5% 476.19 shares
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?

Yes 36.7% 136.14 shares
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?

Yes 35% 142.86 shares
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?

Yes 36% 138.89 shares
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?

Yes 36% 50 shares
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament?

Yes 3.5% 624.78 shares
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 Masters tournament?

Yes 0.1% 13,000 shares
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament?

Yes 8% 624.79 shares
Will Tyrrell Hatton win the 2026 Masters tournament?

Yes 0.1% 4,300 shares